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Plymouth crestPlymouth
v
AFC Wimbledon crestAFC Wimbledon

League One | Sat 10 Oct, 12:30

Plymouth v AFC Wimbledon Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 11:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon meet in a League One clash where defensive solidity and cautious approaches have defined recent matches. Plymouth leads the table and boasts a strong defensive record, conceding just one goal per game while scoring 2.4 on average. AFC Wimbledon, sitting ninth, also concedes one goal per match but has a notably lower scoring rate. Both teams have shown a tendency towards tighter games, with Plymouth's recent form including a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, but Wimbledon only 20%. This contrast suggests a tactical battle with potential for a low-scoring outcome, especially given the stakes and league positions involved.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Plymouth averages 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, showing balanced attack and defense.
  • AFC Wimbledon scores less frequently, averaging 1 goal per game with a solid defense conceding 1 per match.
  • Plymouth's matches go over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, but AFC Wimbledon only 20%, indicating a likely low-scoring game.
  • Head-to-head average goals are 3.5 over 10 matches, but recent form favors defensive caution.
  • Both teams have similar corner and card averages, suggesting a balanced contest without excessive pressure or fouling.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 54.8% chance, supported by Plymouth's strong defensive record and AFC Wimbledon's low scoring rate. Despite Plymouth's higher over 2.5 goals rate, the overall balance and tactical caution expected in this fixture suggest fewer goals. The at 2.2 offer positive value with a 9.3% edge, reflecting market underestimation of the defensive discipline likely to be displayed. Player data shows key attackers with moderate shot volumes but not overwhelming goal threat, reinforcing the likelihood of a controlled, lower-scoring match.

Model Chance54.8% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+9.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance54.8% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+9.3 pts)
Positive
Value Edge54.8% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+9.3 pts)
Strong positive
Plymouth Defensive Record1 goal conceded per game
Strong positive
AFC Wimbledon Scoring Rate1 goal per game
Positive
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical caution

“This fixture is poised for a tactical battle where defensive organization will likely suppress goal totals, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical focus based on current form and player attacking profiles.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Plymouth averages 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, showing balanced attack and defense.

AFC Wimbledon scores less frequently, averaging 1 goal per game with a solid defense conceding 1 per match.

Head-to-head average goals are 3.5 over 10 matches, but recent form favors defensive caution.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, higher than the model's Under 2.5 prediction.
  • However, recent tactical trends and current form favor defensive caution.
  • The trend panel suggests that while past meetings have seen more goals, this fixture is likely to be more restrained due to team form and league stakes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Plymouth2.4
Avg goals scored
AFC Wimbledon1
Plymouth1
Avg goals conceded
AFC Wimbledon1
Plymouth40%
BTTS rate
AFC Wimbledon40%
Plymouth60%
Over 2.5 goals
AFC Wimbledon20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 46% · edge +9.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Goal trends show Plymouth averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded, while AFC Wimbledon scores 1 per game and concedes 1. Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating moderate likelihood of both scoring but not consistently. The contrast in over 2.5 goals rates (60% vs 20%) suggests a match leaning towards fewer goals, supported by cautious tactical approaches.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 67% · edge +3.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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AFC Wimbledon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Plymouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
AFC Wimbledon to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 54.8% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+9.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Plymouth and 20% for AFC Wimbledon, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Plymouth

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 3L
03 Oct 2026A Leyton Orient2-0
26 Sep 2026H Burton Albion0-1
19 Sep 2026A Blackpool4-2
12 Sep 2026H Barnsley3-0
05 Sep 2026A Doncaster3-2

AFC Wimbledon

DDWWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 2L
26 Sep 2026A Cambridge United1-1
17 Sep 2026H Milton Keynes Dons0-0
12 Sep 2026H Doncaster1-0
07 Sep 2026A Bromley2-0
02 Sep 2026A Burton Albion1-4
Best odds for this sectionPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 67% · edge +3.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
AFC Wimbledon Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Plymouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
AFC Wimbledon to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Recent form shows Plymouth with 12 points and a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, while AFC Wimbledon has 8 points and only 20% over 2.5 goals. Plymouth's stronger recent scoring contrasts with Wimbledon's more conservative output, indicating a tactical match where Plymouth may push forward but Wimbledon's defense could limit goal totals, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Plymouth Over 2.5
20%AFC Wimbledon Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, higher than the model's Under 2.5 prediction. However, recent tactical trends and current form favor defensive caution. The trend panel suggests that while past meetings have seen more goals, this fixture is likely to be more restrained due to team form and league stakes.

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