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Moreirense crestMoreirense
v
GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente

Primeira Liga | Fri 09 Oct, 18:45

Moreirense v GIL Vicente Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 09:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Moreirense and GIL Vicente meet in a Primeira Liga clash where both sides have shown cautious attacking output recently. Moreirense's defense concedes more than a goal per game, but their scoring rate is modest, while GIL Vicente's attack has struggled to find the net consistently. Both teams have similar points tallies, reflecting a balanced contest likely to be decided by tight margins. Tactical setups suggest a measured tempo, with neither side pushing aggressively for goals, setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Moreirense concedes 1.6 goals per game but scores only 1.2, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited attacking threat.
  • GIL Vicente averages just 0.8 goals per game with a low BTTS rate of 40%, highlighting their difficulty in scoring.
  • Both teams have contrasting Over 2.5 Goals rates: Moreirense at 60%, GIL Vicente at 20%, suggesting a clash of styles but overall moderate scoring.
  • Recent form shows Moreirense with 7 points and GIL Vicente with 5, both reflecting tight matches with few goals.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 over 10 matches, supporting a tendency towards under 3 goals per game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 57.4% chance, reflecting the teams' low scoring averages and defensive solidity. Moreirense's higher concession rate is offset by GIL Vicente's limited attacking output, creating a balanced scenario for fewer goals. The recent form data and head-to-head history reinforce this cautious outlook. However, the price is slightly short, indicating market caution and suggesting a more conservative stake approach. The absence of limited data concerns adds to this assessment.

Model Probability57.4% model chance vs 60.6% implied (-3.2 pts)
Positive
Moreirense Goals For/Against1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded per game
Neutral
GIL Vicente Goals For/Against0.8 scored, 1 conceded per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.6 goals per game over 10 matches
Positive
Price Sensitivity57.4% model chance vs 60.6% implied (-3.2 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactically cautious match with both teams prioritizing defensive structure over aggressive offense. Moreirense's slightly higher scoring tendency is balanced by GIL Vicente's conservative approach, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible choice supported by recent form and scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and scoring balance

“This fixture features two sides with modest attacking records and a shared emphasis on defensive organization, making a low-scoring game the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Moreirense concedes 1.6 goals per game but scores only 1.2, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited attacking threat.

GIL Vicente averages just 0.8 goals per game with a low BTTS rate of 40%, highlighting their difficulty in scoring.

Recent form shows Moreirense with 7 points and GIL Vicente with 5, both reflecting tight matches with few goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.6, indicating a tendency towards matches with fewer than three goals.
  • This trend aligns with the expected tactical caution and defensive focus in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Moreirense1.2
Avg goals scored
GIL Vicente0.8
Moreirense1.6
Avg goals conceded
GIL Vicente1
Moreirense60%
BTTS rate
GIL Vicente40%
Moreirense60%
Over 2.5 goals
GIL Vicente20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 61% · edge -3.2 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams show restrained scoring and BTTS rates, with Moreirense scoring more but also conceding more. GIL Vicente's low scoring and BTTS figures indicate a defensive approach, supporting a low-goal game scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionMoreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 47% · edge +14.5 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Moreirense to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
GIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 57.4% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60.6% implied by the current price (-3.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Moreirense and 20% for GIL Vicente, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Moreirense

DWLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
20 Sep 2026A Vitória SC1-1
14 Sep 2026H Maritimo3-1
09 Sep 2026H Benfica0-4
04 Sep 2026A FC Porto1-2
30 Aug 2026A Casa Pia1-0

GIL Vicente

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Maritimo1-1
13 Sep 2026A Benfica1-3
06 Sep 2026H Academico Viseu0-1
30 Aug 2026A Famalicao0-0
24 Aug 2026H Casa Pia2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Moreirense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Moreirense to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
GIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Recent matches show Moreirense earning 7 points with a 60% Over 2.5 rate, while GIL Vicente has 5 points and a 20% Over 2.5 rate. This contrast suggests Moreirense's games are more open, but overall form supports a cautious, low-scoring contest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Moreirense Over 2.5
20%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.6, indicating a tendency towards matches with fewer than three goals. This trend aligns with the expected tactical caution and defensive focus in this fixture.

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