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Empoli crestEmpoli
v
Palermo crestPalermo

Serie B | Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

Empoli v Palermo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Empoli face Palermo in Serie B on Sat 10 Oct, 14:00. Empoli come in with 6 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while Palermo have 13 points and 2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Palermo to Win

  • At 1.91, Palermo to Win implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Palermo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for Empoli.
  • Palermo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Palermo to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Empoli sit 13 in the table, while Palermo sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Palermo to Win sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Palermo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for Empoli.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Strong positive
Palermo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Palermo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Palermo Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Palermo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for Empoli. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Palermo to Win evidence

Palermo have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 6 for Empoli.

Palermo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Palermo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Empoli sit 13 in the table, while Palermo sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Palermo to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Empoli0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Palermo2
    Empoli1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Palermo1
    Empoli40%
    BTTS rate
    Palermo80%
    Empoli40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Palermo60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Palermo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 53%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Palermo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Empoli

    LLWLW
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 3L
    20 Sep 2026A Modena1-2
    11 Sep 2026H Arezzo0-1
    05 Sep 2026A Carrarese1-0
    30 Aug 2026A Mantova1-3
    22 Aug 2026H Cremonese1-0

    Palermo

    WDWWW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 0L
    19 Sep 2026H Padova2-1
    13 Sep 2026A Avellino1-1
    07 Sep 2026H Sampdoria3-1
    30 Aug 2026A Arezzo3-2
    23 Aug 2026H Juve Stabia1-0
    Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Palermo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Empoli Over 2.5
    60%Palermo Over 2.5
    2.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Empoli sit at 40% and Palermo sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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