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Carlisle crestCarlisle
v
Kidderminster Harriers crestKidderminster Harriers

National League | Sat 10 Oct, 12:30

Carlisle v Kidderminster Harriers Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 10:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Carlisle face Kidderminster Harriers in National League on Sat 10 Oct, 12:30. Carlisle come in with 7 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Kidderminster Harriers have 5 points and 0.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.25, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Carlisle and 20% for Kidderminster Harriers, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Carlisle are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Kidderminster Harriers at 0.6.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Carlisle and 40% for Kidderminster Harriers show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Carlisle and 20% for Kidderminster Harriers, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Carlisle and 20%.Visible data support
Positive
Carlisle are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Carlisle are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Kidderminster Harriers at 0.6. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Carlisle are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.6 goals per match, with Kidderminster Harriers at 0.6.

BTTS rates of 60% for Carlisle and 40% for Kidderminster Harriers show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Carlisle1.6
Avg goals scored
Kidderminster Harriers0.6
Carlisle1.6
Avg goals conceded
Kidderminster Harriers1
Carlisle60%
BTTS rate
Kidderminster Harriers40%
Carlisle40%
Over 2.5 goals
Kidderminster Harriers20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Carlisle

WWLLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
03 Oct 2026A Aldershot Town3-1
29 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-0
26 Sep 2026H Woking2-5
19 Sep 2026A Eastleigh0-1
15 Sep 2026H Forest Green1-1

Kidderminster Harriers

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
03 Oct 2026H Sutton Utd1-1
29 Sep 2026A Boreham Wood1-3
26 Sep 2026H Yeovil Town0-1
19 Sep 2026A Woking0-0
16 Sep 2026H Gateshead1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +10.6 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Kidderminster Harriers Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Kidderminster Harriers to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
Carlisle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Carlisle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 59% · edge +4.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Kidderminster Harriers Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Kidderminster Harriers to WinBetfred guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
Carlisle Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Carlisle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS Yes is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Carlisle Over 2.5
20%Kidderminster Harriers Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Carlisle sit at 40% and Kidderminster Harriers sit at 20%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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