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Sampdoria crestSampdoria

Serie B | Fri 09 Oct, 19:30

Avellino v Sampdoria Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 09:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Avellino hosts Sampdoria in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Avellino sits 9th with a solid recent run, while Sampdoria, 17th, seeks to improve after mixed results. Both sides have averaged over 1 goal per game but also concede regularly, setting the stage for an open contest. Tactical setups suggest willingness to press forward, with key attackers on both sides capable of influencing the scoreline. This match carries importance for both teams aiming to climb the table, adding competitive edge and potential for goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 70%, indicating frequent mutual scoring.
  • Avellino averages 1.4 goals per game but concedes 1.2, showing attacking strength and defensive gaps.
  • Sampdoria scores 1 goal per game but concedes 1.8, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals, supporting an open game.
  • Top attackers like L. Russo have strong goal threat and shot profiles, increasing scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong attacking outputs and defensive vulnerabilities from both sides. Avellino's 60% BTTS rate and Sampdoria's even higher 80% rate underline a pattern of mutual scoring. The teams' average goals for and against support an open game with chances at both ends. Player-level data shows key attackers with high shot volumes and goal threat, reinforcing the likelihood of goals from both teams. The current offer positive value given the model's higher probability estimate.

Model BTTS Chance76%
Strong positive
Avellino BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Sampdoria BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Average Goals For/AgainstAvellino 1.4/1.2, Sampdoria 1/1.8
Positive
Key Player Goal ThreatL. Insigne 0.81 goals/90, R. Russo 0.62 goals/90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown consistent attacking intent combined with defensive vulnerabilities, making both to score a logical choice. Avellino's home form and Sampdoria's attacking players like Insigne and Lauritsen increase the likelihood of goals at both ends. The data supports an open game where both sides find the net, aligning with the tactical and form context.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS likelihood

“This fixture features two sides with clear offensive capabilities but defensive lapses, setting up a classic BTTS scenario. Key attackers on both teams have the quality and volume of chances to break through, making mutual scoring highly probable.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 70%, indicating frequent mutual scoring.

Avellino averages 1.4 goals per game but concedes 1.2, showing attacking strength and defensive gaps.

Sampdoria scores 1 goal per game but concedes 1.8, highlighting defensive frailty.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals, supporting an open game.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 3 per game, indicating a tendency for open matches.
  • Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals and supporting the BTTS market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Avellino1.4
Avg goals scored
Sampdoria1
Avellino1.2
Avg goals conceded
Sampdoria1.8
Avellino60%
BTTS rate
Sampdoria80%
Avellino60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sampdoria60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown strong tendencies to score and concede, with Avellino and Sampdoria posting BTTS rates of 60% and 80% respectively. Combined with their average goals per game and recent matches featuring multiple goals, this fixture is likely to see goals at both ends, driven by offensive pressure and defensive gaps.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sampdoria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 72.1% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Avellino show a 60% BTTS rate and Sampdoria show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Avellino

LDWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Ascoli1-3
13 Sep 2026H Palermo1-1
06 Sep 2026A Modena1-0
29 Aug 2026H Vicenza Virtus3-0
22 Aug 2026H Arezzo1-2

Sampdoria

WLLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Catanzaro2-1
13 Sep 2026A Mantova0-2
07 Sep 2026A Palermo1-3
29 Aug 2026H Juve Stabia1-2
23 Aug 2026A Cesena1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 69% · edge +15 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Sampdoria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Sampdoria to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Avellino has collected 7 points recently, scoring 1.4 goals per game while conceding 1.2, showing balanced attacking and defensive form. Sampdoria's 4 points with 1 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per game reflect defensive struggles but persistent attacking efforts. This recent form supports a scenario where both teams find the net.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Avellino Over 2.5
60%Sampdoria Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 3 per game, indicating a tendency for open matches. Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals and supporting the BTTS market.

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