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Avellino crestAvellino
v
Sampdoria crestSampdoria

Serie B | Fri 09 Oct, 19:30

Avellino v Sampdoria Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 17:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Avellino face Sampdoria in Serie B on Fri 09 Oct, 19:30. The case for this Serie B fixture producing two or fewer goals rests heavily on Sampdoria’s enduring low-scoring profile and their current struggles on the road. Both teams have recent history of close matches and the visitors' poor away form supports a stalemate outcome.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2

  • At 3/4, Under 2 implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • BTTS wins if both teams score at least one goal, regardless of the final result.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Avellino and 60% for Sampdoria, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Avellino are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Sampdoria at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Avellino and 80% for Sampdoria show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Under 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 42% (-14.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 42% for Under 2 sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Avellino and 60% for Sampdoria, so the goals angle is not just a price call. BTTS wins if both teams score at least one goal, regardless of the final result.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Avellino and 60%.Visible data support
Positive
Avellino are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS wins if both teams score at least one.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because under 2.5 goals is likely as Sampdoria's matches are mostly low-scoring and they face key absences. Avellino are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Sampdoria at 1. Avellino bring a slightly better attacking record, averaging 1.4 goals per game, but they build their home matches on solid foundations rather than chaotic exchanges.

Main risk

Avellino bring a slightly better attacking record, averaging 1.4 goals per game, but they build their home matches on solid foundations rather than chaotic exchanges.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Under 2.5 goals is likely as Sampdoria's matches are mostly low-scoring and they face key absences.

Avellino are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Sampdoria at 1.

BTTS rates of 60% for Avellino and 80% for Sampdoria show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Avellino1.4
Avg goals scored
Sampdoria1
Avellino1.2
Avg goals conceded
Sampdoria1.8
Avellino60%
BTTS rate
Sampdoria80%
Avellino60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sampdoria60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 56% · edge -13.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Avellino and 60% for Sampdoria, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

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Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Sampdoria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Avellino

LDWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Ascoli1-3
13 Sep 2026H Palermo1-1
06 Sep 2026A Modena1-0
29 Aug 2026H Vicenza Virtus3-0
22 Aug 2026H Arezzo1-2

Sampdoria

WLLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Catanzaro2-1
13 Sep 2026A Mantova0-2
07 Sep 2026A Palermo1-3
29 Aug 2026H Juve Stabia1-2
23 Aug 2026A Cesena1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Sampdoria Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Sampdoria to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Avellino Over 2.5
60%Sampdoria Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Avellino sit at 60% and Sampdoria sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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