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Once Caldas crestOnce Caldas
v
Llaneros crestLlaneros

Primera A | Sat 10 Oct, 02:10

Once Caldas v Llaneros Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Once Caldas and Llaneros meet in a Primera A clash where both sides have shown offensive intent despite mixed defensive records. Once Caldas have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding 1.4 goals per game, while Llaneros have a higher scoring rate but also concede heavily. Recent matches suggest open play with both teams capable of finding the net, setting up an intriguing contest with attacking players like D. Caicedo likely to influence the outcome. The fixture carries moderate stakes as both teams seek to improve their mid-table positions in a competitive league.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have strong BTTS rates: Once Caldas 60%, Llaneros 80%.
  • Llaneros average 1.4 goals per game, Once Caldas 0.8, indicating offensive potential.
  • Both sides concede regularly, with Once Caldas allowing 1.4 and Llaneros 1.8 goals per match.
  • Recent form shows both teams scoring in most games, supporting BTTS likelihood.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 76% chance of both teams scoring, well above the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating strong value. Both sides have demonstrated offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, with Llaneros particularly prone to conceding. Player-level data highlights key attackers like D. Caicedo who consistently generate shots and goal threats, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends. The balanced attacking and defensive profiles make BTTS a compelling pick without price warnings or data limitations.

Model Chance62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Once Caldas BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Llaneros BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Key Player ThreatsD. Moreno and K. Caicedo high shots and goal involvement
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede, creating a dynamic where goals at both ends are probable. The presence of prolific attackers and defensive frailties on both sides supports the likelihood of a BTTS outcome, making this a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player roles and defensive vulnerabilities

“The attacking roles of D. Caicedo, combined with defensive lapses on both sides, make both teams scoring a highly plausible scenario in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have strong BTTS rates: Once Caldas 60%, Llaneros 80%.

Llaneros average 1.4 goals per game, Once Caldas 0.8, indicating offensive potential.

Both sides concede regularly, with Once Caldas allowing 1.4 and Llaneros 1.8 goals per match.

Recent form shows both teams scoring in most games, supporting BTTS likelihood.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.67, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, recent form and BTTS rates suggest an upward trend in goals, with both teams frequently scoring in their last fixtures.
  • This trend supports the potential for an open game with goals at both ends, aligning with the BTTS selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Once Caldas0.8
Avg goals scored
Llaneros1.4
Once Caldas1.4
Avg goals conceded
Llaneros1.8
Once Caldas60%
BTTS rate
Llaneros80%
Once Caldas40%
Over 2.5 goals
Llaneros80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have demonstrated consistent scoring ability, with Llaneros averaging 1.4 goals per game and Once Caldas 0.8. Defensive records show both concede regularly, supporting the BTTS trend. The combination of attacking intent and defensive gaps creates a fertile environment for goals at both ends.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Llaneros Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Llaneros to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The 62.6% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Once Caldas show a 60% BTTS rate and Llaneros show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Once Caldas

DLLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
04 Oct 2026A Internacional de Bogota1-1
26 Sep 2026H Bucaramanga1-3
20 Sep 2026A Deportivo Pasto0-1
17 Sep 2026H Deportes Tolima1-0
14 Sep 2026H Deportivo Cali1-2

Llaneros

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
05 Oct 2026H America de Cali1-2
27 Sep 2026A Cucuta1-2
21 Sep 2026H Atletico Nacional2-0
12 Sep 2026A Internacional de Bogota2-3
08 Sep 2026H Deportes Tolima1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Llaneros Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Llaneros to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Recent form data shows Once Caldas scoring 0.8 goals per match and conceding 1.4, while Llaneros score 1.4 and concede 1.8. Both teams have BTTS rates above 60%, indicating a strong trend of both sides finding the net in recent fixtures. This form supports the BTTS pick as both teams continue to show offensive output despite defensive vulnerabilities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Once Caldas Over 2.5
80%Llaneros Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.67, indicating moderate scoring. However, recent form and BTTS rates suggest an upward trend in goals, with both teams frequently scoring in their last fixtures. This trend supports the potential for an open game with goals at both ends, aligning with the BTTS selection.

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