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Gais crestGais
v
Sirius crestSirius

Allsvenskan | Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

Gais v Sirius Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Allsvenskan fixture features Gais hosting league leaders Sirius in a contest where defensive solidity and tactical caution are likely to shape the game. Gais, positioned 10th, have shown a modest goals-against record, while Sirius, top of the table, balance their attacking threat with a disciplined defensive approach. Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo. Recent form data indicates tight encounters with limited goal tallies, setting the stage for a match where under 2.5 goals is a plausible outcome given the stakes and tactical setups.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Gais and Sirius both have a 40% over 2.5 goals match rate this season, indicating moderate scoring frequency.
  • Gais concede an average of 0.8 goals per game, reflecting a relatively solid defense at home.
  • Sirius lead the league but maintain a balanced attack with 1 goal per game and disciplined defense.
  • Recent form shows low scoring matches, with Gais scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals per game.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.29 over seven meetings, supporting a lower scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as a value pick with a 60.9% chance against an implied market chance of 47.6%, reflecting a 13.3% . Both teams demonstrate moderate scoring rates and defensive discipline, with Gais conceding fewer than one goal per game and Sirius balancing attack and defense effectively. The head-to-head average of 2.29 goals and recent form data reinforce a controlled scoring environment. No data limitations affect , making this a solid data-supported selection for a lower-scoring match.

Model Chance60.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+13.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance60.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+13.3 pts)
Positive
Value Edge60.9% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+13.3 pts)
Strong positive
Gais Defensive Record0.8 goals conceded per game
Positive
Sirius Balanced Attack1 goal per game
Positive
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and scoring outlook

“This fixture is poised for a tactical battle where defensive organization will limit goal-scoring chances, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling selection despite Sirius' attacking talent.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Gais concede an average of 0.8 goals per game, reflecting a relatively solid defense at home.

Sirius lead the league but maintain a balanced attack with 1 goal per game and disciplined defense.

Recent form shows low scoring matches, with Gais scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.29, indicating a tendency towards matches with fewer than three goals.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and tactical setups, suggests a controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gais1.4
Avg goals scored
Sirius1
Gais0.8
Avg goals conceded
Sirius1
Gais0%
BTTS rate
Sirius20%
Gais40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sirius40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have relatively low BTTS rates, with Gais at 0% and Sirius at 20%, indicating a tendency for matches without both teams scoring. Combined with modest goals-for averages, this supports a controlled scoring environment favoring Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS No outcomes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gais

WLDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
20 Sep 2026A Mjallby AIF3-0
14 Sep 2026A Djurgardens IF0-2
05 Sep 2026H BK Hacken0-0
31 Aug 2026H IF Brommapojkarna4-0
23 Aug 2026A Hammarby FF0-2

Sirius

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Orgryte IS2-1
14 Sep 2026H Degerfors IF2-0
05 Sep 2026A Vasteras SK FK1-0
31 Aug 2026H Malmo FF0-1
21 Aug 2026H BK Hacken0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +8.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Sirius Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Sirius to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gais Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Gais to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form data shows Gais scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 0.8 per game, while Sirius scores 1 and concedes 1, with both teams having a 40% over 2.5 goals rate. This suggests matches tend to be moderately low scoring, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals pick as consistent with recent performance trends.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSirius Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +4.9 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
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Sirius to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Gais Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Gais to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 60.9% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+13.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Gais and 40% for Sirius, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gais Over 2.5
40%Sirius Over 2.5
2.29H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.29, indicating a tendency towards matches with fewer than three goals. This trend, combined with recent form and tactical setups, suggests a controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.

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