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Pergolettese crestPergolettese
v
Athletic Carpi crestAthletic Carpi

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 10 Oct, 13:30

Pergolettese v Athletic Carpi Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pergolettese face Athletic Carpi in Serie C - Girone A on Sat 10 Oct, 13:30. Pergolettese come in with 7 recent points and 0.6 goals per match, while Athletic Carpi have 2 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Pergolettese to Win

  • At 2.05, Pergolettese to Win implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 64%.
  • Pergolettese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Athletic Carpi.
  • Pergolettese have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Pergolettese to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Pergolettese sit 15 in the table, while Athletic Carpi sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 64% for Pergolettese to Win sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Pergolettese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Athletic Carpi.

Model chance vs price64% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Strong positive
Pergolettese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Pergolettese have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Pergolettese Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Pergolettese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Athletic Carpi. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Pergolettese to Win evidence

Pergolettese have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Athletic Carpi.

Pergolettese have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Pergolettese Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Pergolettese sit 15 in the table, while Athletic Carpi sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Pergolettese to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Pergolettese0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Athletic Carpi1
    Pergolettese0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Athletic Carpi2.2
    Pergolettese20%
    BTTS rate
    Athletic Carpi60%
    Pergolettese20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Athletic Carpi80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 44% · edge +2.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 20% for Pergolettese and 80% for Athletic Carpi, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    player stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPergolettese to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Pergolettese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Pergolettese to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Pergolettese

    DDDDW
    Last 51W 4D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 5D 2L
    03 Oct 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo2-2
    26 Sep 2026H Trento0-0
    20 Sep 2026A Lecco0-0
    17 Sep 2026H Folgore Caratese0-0
    13 Sep 2026A Novara1-0

    Athletic Carpi

    LLDDL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 4L
    03 Oct 2026A PRO Vercelli0-2
    27 Sep 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo0-3
    20 Sep 2026A Novara2-2
    17 Sep 2026H Ospitaletto2-2
    13 Sep 2026H Cittadella1-2
    Market aligned with main pickPergolettese to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Pergolettese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Pergolettese Over 2.5
    80%Athletic Carpi Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Pergolettese sit at 20% and Athletic Carpi sit at 80%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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