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Sutton Utd crestSutton Utd
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Boreham Wood crestBoreham Wood

National League | Fri 09 Oct, 19:45

Sutton Utd v Boreham Wood Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 11:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Boreham Wood enters this National League clash in strong form, sitting top of the table with 32 points, while Sutton Utd is mid-table with 18 points. Boreham Wood's attacking prowess is evident, averaging 3 goals per game recently, contrasting with Sutton's more modest 1.4. Defensively, Boreham Wood is solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per match, suggesting a tactical edge in both attack and defense. This fixture pits a confident, high-scoring side against a team with less firepower, setting up a contest where Boreham Wood's momentum and quality could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Boreham Wood to Win

  • Boreham Wood leads the league with 32 points, showing consistent winning form.
  • Boreham Wood averages 3 goals per game recently, indicating strong offensive capability.
  • Sutton Utd concedes 1.6 goals on average, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting goal-scoring from both sides is common.
  • Boreham Wood has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, pointing to high-scoring matches involving them.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Boreham Wood to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their top-table status and superior recent form. Their potent attack averaging 3 goals per game combined with a sturdy defense conceding less than one goal per match creates a strong football read. Sutton Utd's lower scoring and higher concession rates further tilt the balance. The current offer positive value with a 12.2% edge, making this a confident selection without price caution. Data quality is solid, supporting the reliability of these insights.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Boreham Wood)3 per game
Strong positive
Recent Goals Against (Sutton Utd)1.6 per game
Positive
Value Edge70% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+12.2 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityGood for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Boreham Wood's dominant league position and recent scoring form make them the clear tactical and statistical favorite in this matchup. Their ability to both score freely and maintain defensive discipline provides a solid foundation for victory against a mid-table Sutton Utd side struggling to match their offensive output.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Boreham Wood's blend of attacking efficiency and defensive resilience positions them strongly to secure the win, especially given Sutton Utd's recent defensive lapses and lower goal production.”

Key Data Signals

Boreham Wood to Win evidence

Boreham Wood leads the league with 32 points, showing consistent winning form.

Boreham Wood averages 3 goals per game recently, indicating strong offensive capability.

Sutton Utd concedes 1.6 goals on average, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, suggesting goal-scoring from both sides is common.

What To Watch In The Data

Boreham Wood to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with the high Over 2.5 Goals rate for Boreham Wood's recent games.
  • This trend suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals, supporting expectations of an attacking encounter favoring Boreham Wood.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sutton Utd1.4
Avg goals scored
Boreham Wood3
Sutton Utd1.6
Avg goals conceded
Boreham Wood0.8
Sutton Utd80%
BTTS rate
Boreham Wood80%
Sutton Utd40%
Over 2.5 goals
Boreham Wood100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 82%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, and Boreham Wood's matches have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, with a perfect 100% rate recently. This suggests an open game with multiple scoring chances, supported by Sutton Utd's average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, indicating potential for goals at both ends.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBoreham Wood to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Boreham Wood Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 70% for Boreham Wood to Win sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+12.2 pts). Boreham Wood have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 6 for Sutton Utd.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sutton Utd

DLDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
03 Oct 2026A Kidderminster Harriers1-1
30 Sep 2026A Tamworth0-2
26 Sep 2026H Forest Green3-3
19 Sep 2026A FC Halifax Town1-1
15 Sep 2026H Eastleigh2-1

Boreham Wood

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 1D 0L
03 Oct 2026H Altrincham3-1
29 Sep 2026H Kidderminster Harriers3-1
26 Sep 2026A Solihull Moors3-0
19 Sep 2026H Harrogate Town4-1
16 Sep 2026A Scunthorpe2-1
Market aligned with main pickBoreham Wood to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Boreham Wood Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Boreham Wood's recent form is impressive, accumulating 15 points with an average of 3 goals scored per game and only 0.8 conceded. Sutton Utd's 6 points and lower scoring rate highlight a gap in momentum and effectiveness, favoring Boreham Wood's winning prospects.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sutton Utd Over 2.5
100%Boreham Wood Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning with the high Over 2.5 Goals rate for Boreham Wood's recent games. This trend suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals, supporting expectations of an attacking encounter favoring Boreham Wood.

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