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Genoa crestGenoa
v
Fiorentina crestFiorentina

Serie A | Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

Genoa v Fiorentina Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 10:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Fiorentina aiming to secure their top-flight survival with just a point needed, backed by a strong defensive record at home, conceding only once in their last five matches. Genoa, already safe from relegation, have struggled offensively, failing to score in four of their last six games and carrying a long-standing winless streak in Florence since 1977. The tactical battle is expected to be tight and cautious, with Fiorentina's defensive compactness facing Genoa's improved mentality under Daniele De Rossi, setting the stage for a tense, low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y match pick

Genoa Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Fiorentina unbeaten in last six home matches, conceding only once in five.
  • Genoa failed to score in four of their last six Serie A games.
  • Genoa have not won in Florence since 1977, highlighting historical difficulty.
  • Fiorentina's defensive discipline under Vanoli has transformed their home form.
  • Genoa's safety confirmed, possibly reducing their competitive edge away from home.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Genoa Win & Under 2.5 Goals as a cautious but plausible outcome, reflecting Genoa's recent defensive solidity and Fiorentina's attacking struggles. Despite Genoa's historical difficulties in Florence and Fiorentina's home unbeaten run, Genoa's improved mentality and tactical discipline under De Rossi create a scenario where a narrow Genoa win with few goals is possible. The price is slightly short, suggesting a need for reduced stakes, but the football context supports this as a watch-worthy selection given Genoa's resilience and Fiorentina's low scoring rate.

Model chance12.7% model chance vs 14.3% implied (-1.6 pts)
Neutral
Implied odds chance12.7% model chance vs 14.3% implied (-1.6 pts)
Neutral
Fiorentina defensive record1 goal conceded in last 5 home games
Positive
Genoa scoring strugglesNo goals in 4 of last 6 games
Positive
Historical away record for GenoaNo win in Florence since 1977
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Genoa's tactical discipline and recent defensive improvements under De Rossi make a narrow away win feasible despite Fiorentina's home resilience. Fiorentina's low scoring and psychological pressure to avoid defeat could open the door for Genoa to capitalize on rare chances, making Genoa Win & Under 2.5 Goals a compelling, if cautious, selection.

Main risk

Players always insist former clubs mean “just another game”, but football supporters are not naïve enough to believe that line anymore.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based rationale for Genoa Win & Under 2.5 Goals

“Genoa's transformation into a defensively organized side under De Rossi, combined with Fiorentina's attacking struggles and survival pressure, sets up a scenario where a tight, low-scoring Genoa win is plausible despite historical trends.”

Key Data Signals

Genoa Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Fiorentina unbeaten in last six home matches, conceding only once in five.

Genoa failed to score in four of their last six Serie A games.

Genoa have not won in Florence since 1977, highlighting historical difficulty.

Fiorentina's defensive discipline under Vanoli has transformed their home form.

What To Watch In The Data

Genoa Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.8, indicating moderate scoring historically.
  • However, recent trends show Fiorentina's home matches favor under 2.5 goals due to defensive compactness, while Genoa's scoring struggles further suppress goal totals.
  • This trend panel supports a low-tempo, tight game with limited scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Genoa0.6
Avg goals scored
Fiorentina1.2
Genoa2
Avg goals conceded
Fiorentina2.4
Genoa60%
BTTS rate
Fiorentina60%
Genoa40%
Over 2.5 goals
Fiorentina80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have shown low scoring trends recently, with Fiorentina conceding only once in five home matches and Genoa failing to score in four of six games. This defensive solidity and attacking drought from both sides underpin the expectation of under 3.5 goals and a likely BTTS No scenario, aligning with the low-scoring match narrative.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGenoa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 50% · edge -4.5 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 12.7% for Genoa Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 14.3% implied by the current price (-1.6 pts). A club that began the campaign dreaming about Europe are now one point away from securing survival, and that tells the story of a.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Genoa

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 4L
20 Sep 2026A Parma1-2
12 Sep 2026H Frosinone1-1
04 Sep 2026H Como1-4
30 Aug 2026A Lazio0-1
22 Aug 2026H Napoli0-2

Fiorentina

DWLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
20 Sep 2026H Napoli1-1
11 Sep 2026A Venezia4-2
05 Sep 2026H Torino1-2
29 Aug 2026H Frosinone0-3
24 Aug 2026A AS Roma0-4
Market aligned with main pickGenoa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 50% · edge -4.5 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows Fiorentina earning 4 points from their last matches with a goals-for average of 1.2 and goals-against of 2.4, reflecting defensive solidity but limited scoring. Genoa's form is weaker offensively, with just 1 point and 0.6 goals per game, but their defense has improved, conceding 2 goals per game. This form supports a cautious game with limited goals and a possible Genoa upset.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Genoa Over 2.5
80%Fiorentina Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.8, indicating moderate scoring historically. However, recent trends show Fiorentina's home matches favor under 2.5 goals due to defensive compactness, while Genoa's scoring struggles further suppress goal totals. This trend panel supports a low-tempo, tight game with limited scoring opportunities.

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