Football Stats Hub

Puebla crestPuebla
v
Leon crestLeon

Liga MX | Sat 10 Oct, 02:00

Puebla v Leon Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga MX clash features Puebla hosting Leon in a fixture where Leon arrives with stronger recent form and higher league standing. Leon has collected 8 points in recent matches compared to Puebla's 4, showing more attacking intent with 1.4 goals scored per game versus Puebla's 0.4. Leon's tactical setup emphasizes forward pressure and goal threat, while Puebla has struggled to convert chances. The match carries importance for both sides aiming to consolidate their mid-table positions, with Leon likely to push for control and a positive result away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Leon to Win

  • Leon holds a 64.4% to win, with strong value at 2.5 .
  • Leon averages 1.4 goals per game recently, outscoring Puebla's 0.4.
  • Leon has a higher BTTS rate (80%) compared to Puebla's 20%, indicating offensive activity.
  • Leon’s top attacker D. Cambindo averages 4.45 shots and 1.59 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Puebla’s defensive record shows vulnerability, conceding 1 goal per game on average.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Leon’s clear superiority in recent form and attacking output underpins the model's in their win probability of 64.4%. Their offensive players, notably D. Arcila, consistently generate high shot volumes and goal threats, while Puebla’s low scoring and defensive struggles reduce their chances. The of 2.5 offer a positive of 24.4%, making Leon to Win a compelling selection. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting a reliable forecast without significant sample limitations.

Recent FormLeon has 8 points recently vs Puebla's 4
Strong positive
Goal ThreatLeon averages 1.4 goals/game, Puebla 0.4
Strong positive
Player ShotsD. Cambindo averages 4.45 shots/90
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessPuebla concedes 1 goal/game
Positive
Value Edge55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Leon’s recent attacking form and higher league position suggest they have the tactical and offensive edge to secure victory. Their ability to create quality chances through players like D. Arcila, combined with Puebla’s low scoring output, makes Leon to Win a logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking control and defensive vulnerability

“Leon’s attacking players consistently generate high shot volumes and goal threats, providing a solid foundation for their win probability. Puebla’s struggles to score and defend effectively further tilt the balance in Leon’s favor.”

Key Data Signals

Leon to Win evidence

Leon holds a 64.4% to win, with strong value at 2.5 .

Leon averages 1.4 goals per game recently, outscoring Puebla's 0.4.

Leon has a higher BTTS rate (80%) compared to Puebla's 20%, indicating offensive activity.

Leon’s top attacker D. Cambindo averages 4.45 shots and 1.59 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Leon to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Leon’s recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 40% suggests potential for a higher tempo and goal count in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Puebla0.4
Avg goals scored
Leon1.4
Puebla1
Avg goals conceded
Leon1.2
Puebla20%
BTTS rate
Leon80%
Puebla0%
Over 2.5 goals
Leon40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Leon’s recent matches show an 80% BTTS rate and 40% Over 2.5 goals rate, contrasting with Puebla’s 20% BTTS and 0% Over 2.5. This suggests Leon’s games often feature goals from both sides, while Puebla’s matches tend to be low scoring, indicating a likely open game favoring Leon’s attack.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLeon to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Leon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 55% for Leon to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Leon have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Puebla.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Puebla

LDLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
27 Sep 2026A Tigres UANL0-1
19 Sep 2026H Atlante FC1-1
16 Sep 2026H Toluca0-1
12 Sep 2026A Necaxa1-0
30 Aug 2026A Club America0-2

Leon

WDWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
28 Sep 2026H FC Juarez2-1
21 Sep 2026A Club Queretaro1-1
15 Sep 2026H Atletico San Luis2-0
11 Sep 2026A U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-3
29 Aug 2026A Atlante FC1-1
Market aligned with main pickLeon to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Leon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Leon’s recent form is stronger with 8 points gained compared to Puebla’s 4, reflecting better attacking output and defensive solidity. Leon’s ability to score and maintain pressure contrasts with Puebla’s struggles to find the net, reinforcing Leon’s winning chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Puebla Over 2.5
40%Leon Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Leon’s recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 40% suggests potential for a higher tempo and goal count in this encounter.

Loading deeper match data…