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Nancy crestNancy
v
Guingamp crestGuingamp

Ligue 2 | Fri 09 Oct, 19:00

Nancy v Guingamp Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nancy hosts Guingamp in this Ligue 2 clash with both sides showing contrasting recent momentum. Nancy sits sixth with 10 points, having secured 9 points from recent matches, demonstrating solid home form and a balanced attack averaging 1.6 goals per game. Guingamp, ranked 11th with 8 points, has struggled defensively, conceding 2 goals per game and relying heavily on counter-attacks. Nancy's tactical setup emphasizes control and pressing, aiming to exploit Guingamp's defensive vulnerabilities. This fixture offers Nancy a chance to consolidate their top-table position against a Guingamp side that has shown inconsistency and defensive frailties.

BT4Y best bet

Nancy to Win

  • Nancy has a 63.8% to win, offering positive value at 2.0 .
  • Nancy averages 1.6 goals per game with a solid defensive record conceding 1.2 goals per match.
  • Guingamp concedes 2 goals per game and has a higher BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Key Nancy players like P. Meïssa Ba contribute significantly to goal threat and chance creation.
  • Bokangu is a notable attacking threat but overall team form is less consistent than Nancy's.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Nancy to win with a 63.8% chance, reflecting their stronger recent form and more balanced defensive and attacking output compared to Guingamp. Nancy's home advantage and ability to control matches tactically underpin this . Guingamp's defensive record and inconsistent form reduce their chances. The price at 2.0 offers positive value given the model's higher probability estimate. No significant data limitations affect this view, making Nancy a solid pick with standard stake guidance.

Model Probability63.8% model chance vs 50% implied (+13.8 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormNancy 9 points vs Guingamp 5 points in recent matches
Positive
Defensive StabilityNancy concedes 1.2 goals per game vs Guingamp 2.0
Positive
Attacking ThreatBoth teams average 1.6 goals per game
Neutral
Price Value63.8% model chance vs 50% implied (+13.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Nancy's consistent home form and balanced attack make them the tactical favorites to secure victory. Their ability to control tempo and limit Guingamp's offensive threats, combined with Guingamp's defensive lapses, supports backing Nancy to win in this Ligue 2 encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Nancy's tactical discipline and recent form position them well to capitalize on Guingamp's defensive weaknesses, making a home win the most plausible outcome in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Nancy to Win evidence

Nancy has a 63.8% to win, offering positive value at 2.0 .

Nancy averages 1.6 goals per game with a solid defensive record conceding 1.2 goals per match.

Guingamp concedes 2 goals per game and has a higher BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Key Nancy players like P. Meïssa Ba contribute significantly to goal threat and chance creation.

What To Watch In The Data

Nancy to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match is 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Guingamp's high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent games suggests potential for goals, but Nancy's more conservative approach tempers expectations, pointing to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides to score but a controlled overall match pace.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nancy1.6
Avg goals scored
Guingamp1.6
Nancy1.2
Avg goals conceded
Guingamp2
Nancy40%
BTTS rate
Guingamp80%
Nancy40%
Over 2.5 goals
Guingamp80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams average 1.6 goals per game, but Guingamp's 80% BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rates contrast with Nancy's more conservative 40% rates. This suggests Guingamp's matches tend to be more open and higher scoring, while Nancy's games are more controlled, implying a moderate goal environment with potential for both teams to score.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNancy to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +13.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Nancy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
The 63.8% for Nancy to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+13.8 pts). Nancy have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for Guingamp.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nancy

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
18 Sep 2026A Rodez4-3
11 Sep 2026H Reims1-2
07 Sep 2026A Nantes0-1
28 Aug 2026H Dunkerque2-0
21 Aug 2026A PAU1-0

Guingamp

LWDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
19 Sep 2026H RED Star FC 931-3
12 Sep 2026H Annecy2-1
05 Sep 2026A Reims2-2
29 Aug 2026H Nantes3-3
21 Aug 2026A Sochaux0-1
Market aligned with main pickNancy to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +13.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Nancy Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Nancy's recent accumulation of 9 points compared to Guingamp's 5 highlights stronger momentum and . Nancy's ability to secure results while maintaining a solid defensive record contrasts with Guingamp's inconsistency and defensive lapses, reinforcing Nancy's likelihood to control the match and secure victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Nancy Over 2.5
80%Guingamp Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match is 2.8, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Guingamp's high Over 2.5 goals rate (80%) in recent games suggests potential for goals, but Nancy's more conservative approach tempers expectations, pointing to a balanced tempo with chances for both sides to score but a controlled overall match pace.

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