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Alianza Valledupar crestAlianza Valledupar
v
Águilas Doradas crestÁguilas Doradas

Primera A | Sat 10 Oct, 00:00

Alianza Valledupar v Águilas Doradas Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alianza Valledupar hosts Águilas Doradas in a Primera A clash where Valledupar aims to capitalize on recent momentum and home advantage. Valledupar has earned 9 points recently with a strong attacking output, while Águilas Doradas have struggled for consistency, securing only 4 points in their last matches. Valledupar's offensive style contrasts with Águilas Doradas' more cautious approach, setting up a contest where Valledupar's home form and attacking intent could prove decisive. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, adding intrigue to this encounter as Valledupar looks to climb the standings.

BT4Y best bet

Alianza Valledupar to Win

  • Alianza Valledupar holds a 66.5% to win, offering strong value at 2.55 .
  • Recent form favors Valledupar with 9 points versus Águilas Doradas' 4 in their last fixtures.
  • Valledupar averages 1.4 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently.
  • Águilas Doradas have a lower BTTS rate (20%) compared to Valledupar's 80%, indicating differing attacking styles.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Alianza Valledupar to win with a 66.5% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output. Valledupar's higher goal-scoring rate and strong home performances underpin this . Águilas Doradas' struggles in recent matches and lower scoring rates reduce their chances. The price at 2.55 offers a positive of 27.3%, making Valledupar a compelling selection. No price warnings apply, and data quality is solid for both teams, supporting a confident stance on this pick.

Model Chance54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormValledupar 9 points vs Águilas Doradas 4
Strong positive
Goal Scoring RateValledupar 1.4 goals/game
Positive
Value Edge54.2% model chance vs 39.2% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityGood for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Valledupar's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the likely winners in this fixture. Their ability to score consistently contrasts with Águilas Doradas' recent struggles, providing a solid foundation for a home win. The data supports Valledupar's edge in this matchup, making them the favored side tactically and statistically.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Alianza Valledupar's attacking momentum and home form create a strong platform for victory, especially given Águilas Doradas' recent inconsistency and lower scoring output. This matchup favors Valledupar's proactive style.”

Key Data Signals

Alianza Valledupar to Win evidence

Alianza Valledupar holds a 66.5% to win, offering strong value at 2.55 .

Recent form favors Valledupar with 9 points versus Águilas Doradas' 4 in their last fixtures.

Valledupar averages 1.4 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently.

Águilas Doradas have a lower BTTS rate (20%) compared to Valledupar's 80%, indicating differing attacking styles.

What To Watch In The Data

Alianza Valledupar to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Valledupar's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • This trend supports expectations for a lively match with scoring opportunities for both sides, particularly favoring Valledupar's attacking style.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alianza Valledupar1.4
Avg goals scored
Águilas Doradas0.8
Alianza Valledupar1.8
Avg goals conceded
Águilas Doradas1.4
Alianza Valledupar80%
BTTS rate
Águilas Doradas20%
Alianza Valledupar80%
Over 2.5 goals
Águilas Doradas20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent trends show Valledupar has an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a high BTTS rate, indicating open, attacking games. In contrast, Águilas Doradas have a low 20% BTTS rate and fewer goals scored, suggesting a more defensive approach. This disparity points to a match with potential for goals but possibly uneven attacking threat.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlianza Valledupar to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 54.2% for Alianza Valledupar to Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Alianza Valledupar have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Águilas Doradas.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alianza Valledupar

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
03 Oct 2026A Deportivo Cali1-3
27 Sep 2026A Jaguares2-1
19 Sep 2026H Santa Fe1-4
16 Sep 2026A Chico2-1
13 Sep 2026H Junior1-0

Águilas Doradas

WLLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
03 Oct 2026H Jaguares2-0
28 Sep 2026A Deportivo Cali0-2
24 Sep 2026A America de Cali0-1
18 Sep 2026H Deportivo Pereira2-2
13 Sep 2026A Atletico Nacional0-2
Market aligned with main pickAlianza Valledupar to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Alianza Valledupar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Valledupar's recent form is strong, securing 9 points with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game, reflecting effective attacking play. Águilas Doradas have managed only 4 points recently, with a lower scoring rate of 0.8 goals per game, indicating offensive struggles. This form gap favors Valledupar's and likelihood to control the match tempo.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Alianza Valledupar Over 2.5
20%Águilas Doradas Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Valledupar's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a tendency for open games with multiple goals. This trend supports expectations for a lively match with scoring opportunities for both sides, particularly favoring Valledupar's attacking style.

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