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PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven
v
Heerenveen crestHeerenveen

Eredivisie | Fri 09 Oct, 19:00

PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen Stats

Data last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026, 08:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

PSV Eindhoven hosts Heerenveen in a high-stakes KNVB Beker quarter-final at the Philips Stadion, where PSV's dominant home record against Heerenveen since 2009 sets the backdrop. PSV's attacking prowess, led by creators like Joey Veerman and finishers such as Ismael Saibari, contrasts with Heerenveen's aggressive shot volume and unbeaten cup run. Both teams favor high-intensity, transition-heavy play with PSV controlling possession and Heerenveen pressing with directness, promising a competitive and open encounter under the floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • PSV unbeaten at home vs Heerenveen since 2009, showing strong home control
  • Both teams average over 16 shots per game, indicating attacking openness
  • Heerenveen unbeaten in last six KNVB Beker matches, showing cup resilience
  • PSV's defensive lapses and Heerenveen's shot volume suggest both teams will score
  • Historical and tactical context supports a competitive 2-1 PSV victory with goals at both ends

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76% chance, well above the implied 43.5% , indicating strong value. PSV's prolific scoring (64 goals in 21 league games) combined with Heerenveen's high shot volume and aggressive attacking style supports a game with goals at both ends. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, especially PSV's tendency for individual errors, increase the likelihood of both teams scoring. The data quality is solid, and the price reflects a positive without warning flags.

Model Chance76% model chance vs 73.5% implied (+2.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Probability76% model chance vs 73.5% implied (+2.5 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge76% model chance vs 73.5% implied (+2.5 pts)
Strong positive
PSV Scoring Form64 goals in 21 league matches
Strong positive
Heerenveen Shot Volume16.09 shots per game
Strong positive
Main risk

Their attacking output has been exceptional, with 24 goals scored, but conceding 10 highlights an increasingly significant weakness.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and statistical balance

“This fixture promises an open, high-tempo encounter where PSV's offensive quality meets Heerenveen's fearless attacking style, making Both Teams to Score a logical and compelling choice.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

PSV unbeaten at home vs Heerenveen since 2009, showing strong home control

Both teams average over 16 shots per game, indicating attacking openness

Heerenveen unbeaten in last six KNVB Beker matches, showing cup resilience

PSV's defensive lapses and Heerenveen's shot volume suggest both teams will score

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.6, indicating a high-scoring trend.
  • PSV's 100% Over 2.5 rate in recent matches and Heerenveen's 60% Over 2.5 rate suggest a match likely to exceed 2.5 goals, driven by open play, transitions, and attacking intent from both teams.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

PSV Eindhoven4
Avg goals scored
Heerenveen1.6
PSV Eindhoven1.4
Avg goals conceded
Heerenveen1.4
PSV Eindhoven100%
BTTS rate
Heerenveen40%
PSV Eindhoven100%
Over 2.5 goals
Heerenveen60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams demonstrate high shot volumes and attacking intent, with PSV averaging 21.2 shots and Heerenveen 18.2 per game. PSV's 100% BTTS rate and Heerenveen's 40% BTTS rate in recent form suggest goals at both ends. The tactical emphasis on transitions and direct play supports a match with multiple scoring chances for both sides.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Heerenveen Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 36%
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
PSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Heerenveen to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
The 76% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 73.5% implied by the current price (+2.5 pts). PSV Eindhoven show a 100% BTTS rate and Heerenveen show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

PSV Eindhoven

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 1L
20 Sep 2026A Twente2-3
13 Sep 2026H Sparta Rotterdam4-1
05 Sep 2026A Ajax3-1
30 Aug 2026A Utrecht6-1
23 Aug 2026H Groningen5-1

Heerenveen

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Sparta Rotterdam4-0
13 Sep 2026H Telstar0-0
06 Sep 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-3
30 Aug 2026A Willem II2-2
22 Aug 2026H PEC Zwolle0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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Heerenveen Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 36%
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
PSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Heerenveen to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
PSV's recent form shows 12 points with 4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, maintaining a 100% Over 2.5 and BTTS rate, highlighting consistent attacking output and defensive lapses. Heerenveen's 5 points with 1.6 goals for and against per game, plus a 60% Over 2.5 rate, reflect their ability to score and concede, supporting the BTTS market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5
60%Heerenveen Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.6, indicating a high-scoring trend. PSV's 100% Over 2.5 rate in recent matches and Heerenveen's 60% Over 2.5 rate suggest a match likely to exceed 2.5 goals, driven by open play, transitions, and attacking intent from both teams.

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