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PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven
v
Heerenveen crestHeerenveen

Eredivisie | Fri 09 Oct, 19:00

PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

PSV Eindhoven face Heerenveen in Eredivisie on Fri 09 Oct, 19:00. Peter Bosz's side suffered their first league defeat of the season against FC Twente before the international break, leaving them third in the standings. Heerenveen's unbeaten away record and PSV's defensive frailties support an Asian Handicap +2 selection.

BT4Y best bet

Issues and Heerenveen's disciplined defence

  • At 15/1, Issues and Heerenveen's disciplined defence implies roughly 6%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 21%.
  • Across seven matches, Heerenveen have scored 11 goals and conceded nine, suggesting a more balanced profile than their inconsistent results initially indicate.
  • PSV Eindhoven have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Heerenveen.
  • PSV Eindhoven have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Issues and Heerenveen's disciplined defence angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • PSV Eindhoven sit 3 in the table, while Heerenveen sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 21% for Issues and Heerenveen's disciplined defence sits against roughly 6% implied by the current price. PSV Eindhoven have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Heerenveen. Across seven matches, Heerenveen have scored 11 goals and conceded nine, suggesting a more balanced profile than their inconsistent results initially indicate.

Model chance vs price21% model chance against roughly 6% implied
Strong positive
PSV Eindhoven have the stronger recent points return, taking 12.Visible data support
Positive
PSV Eindhoven have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Across seven matches, Heerenveen have scored 11 goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: PSV Eindhoven Win is the preferred angle because across seven matches, Heerenveen have scored that scoring level and conceded nine, suggesting a more balanced profile than their inconsistent results initially indicate. PSV Eindhoven have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Heerenveen. Their attacking output has been exceptional, with that scoring level scored, but conceding 10 highlights an increasingly significant weakness.

Main risk

Their attacking output has been exceptional, with 24 goals scored, but conceding 10 highlights an increasingly significant weakness.

Key Data Signals

Issues and Heerenveen's disciplined defence evidence

Across seven matches, Heerenveen have scored 11 goals and conceded nine, suggesting a more balanced profile than their.

PSV Eindhoven have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Heerenveen.

PSV Eindhoven have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the PSV Eindhoven Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

PSV Eindhoven sit 3 in the table, while Heerenveen sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Issues and Heerenveen's disciplined defence notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    PSV Eindhoven4
    Avg goals scored
    Heerenveen1.6
    PSV Eindhoven1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Heerenveen1.4
    PSV Eindhoven100%
    BTTS rate
    Heerenveen40%
    PSV Eindhoven100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Heerenveen60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 100% for PSV Eindhoven and 40% for Heerenveen, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    PSV Eindhoven to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    PSV Eindhoven

    LWWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 1L
    20 Sep 2026A Twente2-3
    13 Sep 2026H Sparta Rotterdam4-1
    05 Sep 2026A Ajax3-1
    30 Aug 2026A Utrecht6-1
    23 Aug 2026H Groningen5-1

    Heerenveen

    WDLDL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 2L
    19 Sep 2026A Sparta Rotterdam4-0
    13 Sep 2026H Telstar0-0
    06 Sep 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-3
    30 Aug 2026A Willem II2-2
    22 Aug 2026H PEC Zwolle0-2
    Market aligned with main pickPSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5
    60%Heerenveen Over 2.5
    3.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: PSV Eindhoven sit at 100% and Heerenveen sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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