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SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg
v
Aston Villa crestAston Villa

UEFA Europa League | Wed 20 May, 20:00

SC Freiburg v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 18:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Freiburg face Aston Villa in UEFA Europa League on Wed 20 May, 20:00. Ollie Watkins has scored 10 goals in his last 10 starts and has netted in four consecutive Europa League appearances. Aston Villa are in exceptional tournament form, winning 12 of their 14 fixtures this campaign.

BT4Y best bet

Issues stemming from absences and doubts could hamper Aston Villa's defensive shielding against aggressive transitions

  • At 29/10, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 26%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Match Result and Both Teams to Score
  • SC Freiburg show a 80% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • SC Freiburg average 3 goals scored and Aston Villa average 2.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 26% implied by the current price. SC Freiburg show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Aston Villa show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Match Result and Both Teams to Score

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 26% implied
Strong positive
SC Freiburg show a 80% BTTS rate and Aston Villa.Visible data support
Positive
SC Freiburg average 3 goals scored and Aston Villa average.Visible data support
Positive
Match Result and Both Teams to ScoreArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because match Result and Both Teams to Score SC Freiburg show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Aston Villa show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Villa must resist allowing the contest to become frantic.

Main risk

Villa must resist allowing the contest to become frantic.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

Match Result and Both Teams to Score

SC Freiburg show a 80% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show a 20% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

SC Freiburg average 3 goals scored and Aston Villa average 2.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SC Freiburg3
Avg goals scored
Aston Villa2.6
SC Freiburg1
Avg goals conceded
Aston Villa0.4
SC Freiburg80%
BTTS rate
Aston Villa20%
SC Freiburg100%
Over 2.5 goals
Aston Villa60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 49% · edge +17.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 49% · edge +17.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 52%
2
Check odds @ 2
SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Aston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

SC Freiburg2.8
Avg corners for
Aston Villa5
SC Freiburg7.2
Avg total corners
Aston Villa8.8
SC Freiburg2.2
Avg yellow cards
Aston Villa0.6
SC Freiburg13.2
Avg shots
Aston Villa11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 48% · edge +1.6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SC Freiburg

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
07 May 2026H SC Braga3-1
30 Apr 2026A SC Braga1-2
16 Apr 2026A Celta Vigo3-1
09 Apr 2026H Celta Vigo3-0
19 Mar 2026H Genk5-1

Aston Villa

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 0D 1L
07 May 2026H Nottingham Forest4-0
30 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest0-1
16 Apr 2026H Bologna4-0
09 Apr 2026A Bologna3-1
19 Mar 2026H Lille2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 46% · edge +27.3 pts
2.19
Check odds @ 2.19
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SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 52%
2
Check odds @ 2
SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Aston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0SC Freiburg wins
0Draws
0Aston Villa wins
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 49% · edge +17.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Aston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for BTTS Yes, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg15
Played
Aston Villa15
SC Freiburg1.7
Avg goals for
Aston Villa2.1
SC Freiburg0.9
Avg goals against
Aston Villa0.5
SC Freiburg5
Clean sheets
Aston Villa9
Best odds for this sectionSC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 19% · edge +24 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
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Aston Villa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 52%
2
Check odds @ 2
SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Aston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Season data supports SC Freiburg to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Aston Villa2187018
7SC Freiburg1785216
UEFA Europa League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%SC Freiburg Over 2.5
60%Aston Villa Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: SC Freiburg sit at 100% and Aston Villa sit at 60%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

SC Freiburg v Aston Villa prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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