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Yeovil Town crestYeovil Town
v
Leatherhead crestLeatherhead

FA Cup | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Yeovil Town v Leatherhead Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 09:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This FA Cup tie between Yeovil Town and Leatherhead sets up an intriguing clash where Yeovil Town's recent matches have consistently featured high scoring, with all games surpassing 2.5 goals. Leatherhead, while more conservative, have shown some offensive capability and a solid defense, conceding fewer goals on average. The match promises open play and attacking intent from Yeovil Town, who will look to capitalize on home advantage and continue their goal-rich form in this knockout setting.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Yeovil Town has a 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals recently, indicating strong attacking output.
  • Leatherhead concedes only 0.75 goals per game on average, suggesting a resilient defense but occasional vulnerability.
  • The only previous meeting between these teams ended with 6 goals, highlighting potential for a high-scoring encounter.
  • Yeovil Town’s matches also have a 100% BTTS rate, showing both teams score regularly in their games.
  • Model projects a 57.9% chance for Over 3.5 Goals with positive value at 2.0 , supporting the selection.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals due to Yeovil Town's consistent high-scoring matches and the historical high goal count in their only previous meeting with Leatherhead. Yeovil's offensive strength combined with Leatherhead's occasional defensive lapses creates a scenario ripe for multiple goals. The 57.9% exceeds the implied market chance, indicating positive value. is solid at 66%, supporting a standard stake recommendation for this high-tempo FA Cup fixture.

Yeovil Town Over 2.5 Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Previous H2H Average Goals6 goals in 1 match
Strong positive
Leatherhead Defensive Record0.75 goals conceded per game
Positive
Model Confidence66%
Positive
Market Value Edge57.9% model chance vs 50% implied (+7.9 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect Yeovil Town to push forward aggressively in this FA Cup tie, leveraging their recent high-scoring form. Leatherhead's solid defense may slow the pace but is unlikely to prevent multiple goals given Yeovil's attacking consistency and the open nature of cup football. This match is well poised for a goal-laden encounter, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Yeovil Town’s attacking momentum combined with Leatherhead’s defensive vulnerabilities sets the stage for a high-scoring FA Cup clash. The historical goal tally and recent form strongly suggest multiple goals will be scored.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Yeovil Town has a 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals recently, indicating strong attacking output.

Leatherhead concedes only 0.75 goals per game on average, suggesting a resilient defense but occasional vulnerability.

The only previous meeting between these teams ended with 6 goals, highlighting potential for a high-scoring encounter.

Yeovil Town’s matches also have a 100% BTTS rate, showing both teams score regularly in their games.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Recent trends from the last meeting and recent matches show a strong inclination towards games with over 2.5 goals.
  • The high average goal count and Yeovil Town’s attacking tempo suggest this fixture will continue that pattern, with a fast pace and multiple scoring chances expected.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Yeovil Town3
Avg goals scored
Leatherhead2
Yeovil Town3
Avg goals conceded
Leatherhead0.75
Yeovil Town100%
BTTS rate
Leatherhead25%
Yeovil Town100%
Over 2.5 goals
Leatherhead50%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +7.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Yeovil Town’s recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring consistently, while Leatherhead shows a lower BTTS rate but concedes some goals. The previous meeting produced 6 goals, reinforcing the expectation of an open game with multiple scoring opportunities for both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Leatherhead to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Yeovil Town to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
5
Check odds @ 5
The 57.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+7.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Yeovil Town and 50% for Leatherhead, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Yeovil Town

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Leatherhead3-3

Leatherhead

DWWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Yeovil Town3-3
03 Oct 2026H Hanworth Villa1-0
19 Sep 2026A Kingstonian1-0
05 Sep 2026H Croydon Athletic3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 36% · edge +8.6 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Leatherhead to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Yeovil Town to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
5
Check odds @ 5
Yeovil Town’s recent form is characterized by high-scoring matches, with a perfect record of games exceeding 2.5 goals. Leatherhead’s form is more defensive but includes some goal concessions, suggesting the match will favor attacking play and goal accumulation, consistent with the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Yeovil Town Over 2.5
50%Leatherhead Over 2.5
6H2H avg goals
Recent trends from the last meeting and recent matches show a strong inclination towards games with over 2.5 goals. The high average goal count and Yeovil Town’s attacking tempo suggest this fixture will continue that pattern, with a fast pace and multiple scoring chances expected.

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