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Stevenage crestStevenage
v
Plymouth crestPlymouth

League One | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Stevenage v Plymouth Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 05:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stevenage face Plymouth in League One on Tue 20 Oct, 19:45. Plymouth Argyle travel to the Lamex Stadium on Tuesday, 20 October, knowing victory over Stevenage could propel them to the top of League One, depending on results elsewhere.

BT4Y best bet

The Draw

  • At 5/2, The Draw implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 44%.
  • The 1-1 scoreline reflects Plymouth's strong away attack balanced by Stevenage's solid defence, with both sides capable of scoring but unlikely to dominate.
  • Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the The Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Stevenage sit 16 in the table, while Plymouth sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 44% for The Draw sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the The Draw angle more than a raw possession edge. The 1-1 scoreline reflects Plymouth's strong away attack balanced by Stevenage's solid defence, with both sides capable of scoring but unlikely to dominate.

Model chance vs price44% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Strong positive
Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Stevenage sit 16 in the table, while Plymouth sit 5.Visible data support
Positive
The 1-1 scoreline reflects Plymouth's strong away attack balanced.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Stevenage Win is the preferred angle because the 1-1 scoreline reflects Plymouth's strong away attack balanced by Stevenage's solid defence, with both sides capable of scoring but unlikely to dominate. Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Stevenage Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Risk Factor: Stevenage's strong defence could keep Plymouth from scoring, risking the exact 1-1 prediction.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Stevenage's strong defence could keep Plymouth from scoring, risking the exact 1-1 prediction.

Key Data Signals

The Draw evidence

The 1-1 scoreline reflects Plymouth's strong away attack balanced by Stevenage's solid defence, with both sides capable of.

Stevenage have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Stevenage Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Stevenage sit 16 in the table, while Plymouth sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

The Draw notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Stevenage1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Plymouth1.6
    Stevenage1
    Avg goals conceded
    Plymouth1.2
    Stevenage40%
    BTTS rate
    Plymouth40%
    Stevenage40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Plymouth40%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 51% · edge +5.5 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Stevenage and 40% for Plymouth, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    League One hubStevenage v Plymouth predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickStevenage to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 39% · edge +4.8 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 74%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Stevenage Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Stevenage to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Stevenage

    LWLWW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 3L
    17 Oct 2026A Bradford0-2
    10 Oct 2026H Wigan1-0
    19 Sep 2026A Leyton Orient0-1
    10 Sep 2026H Luton2-1
    05 Sep 2026A Barnsley5-1

    Plymouth

    LWWLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    17 Oct 2026H Huddersfield0-2
    10 Oct 2026H AFC Wimbledon2-1
    03 Oct 2026A Leyton Orient2-0
    26 Sep 2026H Burton Albion0-1
    19 Sep 2026A Blackpool4-2
    Market aligned with main pickStevenage to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 39% · edge +4.8 pts
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Stevenage Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Stevenage Over 2.5
    40%Plymouth Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Stevenage sit at 40% and Plymouth sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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