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Stevenage crestStevenage
v
Plymouth crestPlymouth

League One | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Stevenage v Plymouth Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 12:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stevenage and Plymouth meet in a League One clash where both sides have shown attacking intent and willingness to press high, creating opportunities from wide areas. Plymouth, sitting fourth, have been effective in generating set-piece chances, while Stevenage's home form includes sustained pressure and repeated deliveries into the box. Both teams have averaged multiple corners per game this season, setting the stage for a contest likely to feature frequent territorial battles and wing play, increasing the corner count potential in this midweek fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Stevenage average 3.2 corners per game, Plymouth 4.8, combining for over 8 per match on average
  • Both teams play with wide attacking patterns leading to frequent corner wins
  • Recent form shows both sides maintain offensive pressure resulting in set-piece opportunities
  • Match tempo and tactical approach suggest sustained wing play and repeated deliveries into the box
  • Model projects a 68.3% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 68.3% chance for over 9.5 corners, well above the implied market chance of 54.6%, indicating positive value. Both Stevenage and Plymouth average a combined 8 corners per game, with Plymouth's 4.8 corners per match reflecting their attacking width and Stevenage's 3.2 corners showing consistent pressure. The teams' styles favor wing play and set-piece creation, increasing corner opportunities. is high at 84%, supported by stable recent form and balanced corner generation from both sides.

Model chance68.3% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+13.7 pts)
Strong positive
Implied market chance68.3% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+13.7 pts)
Strong positive
Stevenage avg corners3.2 per game
Positive
Plymouth avg corners4.8 per game
Positive
Confidence level84%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively contest with both Stevenage and Plymouth pushing for territorial control through wide areas, generating numerous corners. Plymouth's higher league position and attacking style combined with Stevenage's home pressure suggest a match rich in set-piece chances, making over 9.5 corners a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market

“The corner market here is compelling given both teams' attacking tendencies and average corner counts. Plymouth's ability to force corners through sustained wing play and Stevenage's home pressure create a fertile environment for this bet.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Stevenage average 3.2 corners per game, Plymouth 4.8, combining for over 8 per match on average

Both teams play with wide attacking patterns leading to frequent corner wins

Recent form shows both sides maintain offensive pressure resulting in set-piece opportunities

Match tempo and tactical approach suggest sustained wing play and repeated deliveries into the box

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating open games with attacking intent from both sides.
  • This tempo and openness often correlate with increased corner counts due to frequent attacking transitions and defensive clearances, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals trend panel and supporting a high corner count in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Stevenage1.6
Avg goals scored
Plymouth1.6
Stevenage1
Avg goals conceded
Plymouth1.2
Stevenage40%
BTTS rate
Plymouth40%
Stevenage40%
Over 2.5 goals
Plymouth40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 53% · edge +4.2 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Both teams have moderate scoring rates with an average of 1.6 goals per game and a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating balanced attacking and defensive play. The 2.8 average goals in their last 10 meetings suggest open games, which often correlate with increased corner counts due to attacking pressure and defensive clearances leading to corners.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +7.6 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Stevenage Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Stevenage to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Plymouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Plymouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 68.3% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+13.7 pts). Plymouth lead the corner sample at 4.8 per match, with Stevenage lower at 3.2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Stevenage

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 3L
17 Oct 2026A Bradford0-2
10 Oct 2026H Wigan1-0
19 Sep 2026A Leyton Orient0-1
10 Sep 2026H Luton2-1
05 Sep 2026A Barnsley5-1

Plymouth

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
17 Oct 2026H Huddersfield0-2
10 Oct 2026H AFC Wimbledon2-1
03 Oct 2026A Leyton Orient2-0
26 Sep 2026H Burton Albion0-1
19 Sep 2026A Blackpool4-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Stevenage Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Stevenage to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Plymouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Plymouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Both teams have earned 9 points recently with similar goal-scoring and conceding rates, maintaining a 40% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rate. Their consistent offensive output and defensive resilience support a game with sustained attacking phases, which typically produce a higher number of corners, aligning with the over 9.5 corners pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Stevenage Over 2.5
40%Plymouth Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating open games with attacking intent from both sides. This tempo and openness often correlate with increased corner counts due to frequent attacking transitions and defensive clearances, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals trend panel and supporting a high corner count in this match.

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