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Forest Green crestForest Green
v
Chesham United crestChesham United

FA Cup | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Forest Green v Chesham United Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 09:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This FA Cup fixture features Forest Green hosting Chesham United in a classic underdog clash. Chesham United arrive in strong recent form, boasting a high goal-scoring rate and positive momentum, while Forest Green have struggled to find the net and gain points lately. The tactical setup suggests Chesham United will look to exploit defensive vulnerabilities and press for goals, making this a compelling contest with Chesham United as confident outsiders aiming for an upset.

BT4Y best bet

Chesham United to Win

  • Chesham United have averaged 3.67 goals scored per game recently, showing strong attacking form.
  • Forest Green have failed to score or earn points in their latest matches, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Chesham United's over 2.5 goals rate stands at 67%, suggesting open, high-scoring games.
  • Head-to-head data is limited with only one previous meeting and no goals scored.
  • Chesham United's recent form points to a strong chance of victory despite long .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Chesham United to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent scoring and points accumulation compared to Forest Green's scoreless run. The of 9.5 imply a low 10.5% chance, creating a significant of nearly 60%. Chesham United's attacking momentum and Forest Green's defensive frailties underpin this confident prediction. No data limitations affect , making this a clear value pick based on form and statistical contrast.

Recent scoring formChesham United average 3.67 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent defensive formForest Green have conceded 0 goals recently but also scored none
Neutral
Over 2.5 goals rateChesham United at 67%
Positive
Implied odds vs model chance19.8% model chance vs 10.5% implied (+9.3 pts)
Strong positive
Data qualityNo limited data issues
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Chesham United's recent attacking prowess and positive momentum make them a strong candidate for an upset victory over Forest Green, who have struggled offensively. The statistical gap in form and goal production supports backing Chesham United despite the underdog status, highlighting a tactical and data-driven edge in this FA Cup tie.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and value

“Chesham United's sharp attacking form and Forest Green's scoring drought create a compelling case for an upset. The value in the reflects market skepticism, but the data clearly favors Chesham United's chances in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Chesham United to Win evidence

Chesham United have averaged 3.67 goals scored per game recently, showing strong attacking form.

Forest Green have failed to score or earn points in their latest matches, indicating offensive struggles.

Chesham United's over 2.5 goals rate stands at 67%, suggesting open, high-scoring games.

Head-to-head data is limited with only one previous meeting and no goals scored.

What To Watch In The Data

Chesham United to Win notes

  • Recent trends show Chesham United participate in matches with over 2.5 goals 67% of the time, indicating a high-tempo, open style conducive to multiple scoring opportunities.
  • The limited head-to-head sample offers little insight, but Chesham United's attacking tempo suggests this fixture could follow suit with several goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Forest Green0
Avg goals scored
Chesham United3.67
Forest Green0
Avg goals conceded
Chesham United1.67
Forest Green0%
BTTS rate
Chesham United67%
Forest Green0%
Over 2.5 goals
Chesham United67%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Chesham United's high over 2.5 goals rate of 67% suggests this match could see multiple goals, contrasting with Forest Green's recent scoreless matches. The likelihood of both teams scoring is supported by Chesham United's attacking output, while Forest Green's defensive resilience is unproven, pointing to an open game with goal-scoring chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

FA Cup fixtures and predictionsplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickChesham United to WinBetfred guide price · Model 20% vs implied 11% · edge +9.3 pts
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 19.8% for Chesham United to Win sits against roughly 10.5% implied by the current price (+9.3 pts). Chesham United have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Forest Green.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Forest Green

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Chesham United0-0

Chesham United

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Forest Green0-0
03 Oct 2026H Real Bedford4-3
19 Sep 2026H Ware7-2
Market aligned with main pickChesham United to WinBetfred guide price · Model 20% vs implied 11% · edge +9.3 pts
9.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.48
Check odds @ 3.48
Chesham United have accumulated 7 points recently with an average of 3.67 goals scored per game, showcasing strong momentum and offensive efficiency. In contrast, Forest Green have gained only 1 point and failed to score, highlighting a stark contrast in form that favors Chesham United's chances to secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Forest Green Over 2.5
67%Chesham United Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
Recent trends show Chesham United participate in matches with over 2.5 goals 67% of the time, indicating a high-tempo, open style conducive to multiple scoring opportunities. The limited head-to-head sample offers little insight, but Chesham United's attacking tempo suggests this fixture could follow suit with several goals.

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