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Burton Albion crestBurton Albion
v
Bradford crestBradford

League One | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Burton Albion v Bradford Stats

Data last updated: Mon 09 Nov 2026, 06:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burton Albion face Bradford in League One on Tue 20 Oct, 19:45. 8 in 10: Burton have avoided defeat in eight of their last 10 home league matches. A 1-1 draw fits Burton's attacking threat and home form against Bradford's low-volume but clinical scoring.

BT4Y best bet

Wins only if the score is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time

  • At 3.7, Wins only if the score is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Both teams' attacking and defensive stats suggest a balanced contest likely to end level.
  • Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for Burton Albion.
  • Bradford have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Wins only if the score is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Burton Albion sit 15 in the table, while Bradford sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Wins only if the score is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for Burton Albion. Both teams' attacking and defensive stats suggest a balanced contest likely to end level.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Neutral
Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Bradford have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams' attacking and defensive stats suggest a balanced.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Burton Albion Win is the preferred angle because both teams' attacking and defensive stats suggest a balanced contest likely to end level. Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for Burton Albion. For Bradford City, a single goal reflects their clinical but low-volume approach.

Main risk

For Bradford City, a single goal reflects their clinical but low-volume approach.

Key Data Signals

Wins only if the score is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time evidence

Both teams' attacking and defensive stats suggest a balanced contest likely to end level.

Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for Burton Albion.

Bradford have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Burton Albion Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Burton Albion sit 15 in the table, while Bradford sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Wins only if the score is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Burton Albion1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Bradford1
    Burton Albion1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Bradford0.2
    Burton Albion60%
    BTTS rate
    Bradford20%
    Burton Albion60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bradford0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.3 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for Burton Albion and 20% for Bradford, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBurton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Burton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Burton Albion to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Burton Albion

    DLLWD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    17 Oct 2026A Peterborough2-2
    10 Oct 2026A Doncaster0-1
    03 Oct 2026H Huddersfield1-3
    26 Sep 2026A Plymouth1-0
    19 Sep 2026H Mansfield Town2-2

    Bradford

    WDDWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    17 Oct 2026H Stevenage2-0
    10 Oct 2026H Leyton Orient0-0
    03 Oct 2026A Reading1-1
    19 Sep 2026A Luton1-0
    12 Sep 2026A Notts County1-0
    Market aligned with main pickBurton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
    3.7
    Check odds @ 3.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Burton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.42
    Check odds @ 2.42
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Burton Albion Over 2.5
    0%Bradford Over 2.5
    2.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Burton Albion sit at 60% and Bradford sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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