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Burton Albion crestBurton Albion
v
Bradford crestBradford

League One | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Burton Albion v Bradford Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 12:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bradford currently leads League One and visits Burton Albion, who sit mid-table. Bradford's defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 0.2 goals per game recently, while Burton have struggled defensively, allowing 1.6 goals on average. Bradford's form shows 11 points from recent matches compared to Burton's 5, highlighting the visitors' momentum. Tactical discipline and defensive organization underpin Bradford's approach, making them strong contenders to secure victory in this fixture at Burton's ground.

BT4Y best bet

Bradford to Win

  • Bradford tops the league with 20 points, showing strong form and defensive record.
  • Burton Albion concedes 1.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Bradford has conceded only 0.2 goals per game, demonstrating defensive resilience.
  • Recent form favors Bradford with 11 points versus Burton's 5 in latest matches.
  • Bradford's attacking players like W. Powell contribute consistent goal threats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Bradford to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their league-leading form and strong defensive record conceding just 0.2 goals per game. Burton Albion's defensive struggles and lower recent points tally support this view. The at 2.0 offer positive value given the 20% . Player data shows Bradford's attackers, including W. Powell, provide reliable offensive output, reinforcing Bradford's chances. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormBradford 11 points vs Burton 5
Strong positive
Defensive RecordBradford concedes 0.2 goals, Burton 1.6
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bradford's superior defensive record and recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorites to win this match. Their ability to limit chances and capitalize on Burton's defensive weaknesses provides a solid foundation for victory, supported by consistent attacking contributions from key players.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive strength

“Bradford's disciplined defense and effective counter-attacking style position them well to secure all three points against a vulnerable Burton side struggling defensively.”

Key Data Signals

Bradford to Win evidence

Bradford tops the league with 20 points, showing strong form and defensive record.

Burton Albion concedes 1.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Bradford has conceded only 0.2 goals per game, demonstrating defensive resilience.

Recent form favors Bradford with 11 points versus Burton's 5 in latest matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Bradford to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • However, Bradford's recent defensive improvements and Burton's attacking struggles suggest this match may see fewer goals, with Bradford's control likely limiting scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burton Albion1.2
Avg goals scored
Bradford1
Burton Albion1.6
Avg goals conceded
Bradford0.2
Burton Albion60%
BTTS rate
Bradford20%
Burton Albion60%
Over 2.5 goals
Bradford0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 57% · edge +1.5 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Goal trends indicate a low-scoring match likely, with Bradford conceding only 0.2 goals per game and Burton's recent matches averaging 1.2 goals scored. Bradford's low BTTS rate of 20% contrasts with Burton's 60%, suggesting Bradford's defense will limit Burton's scoring chances, favoring a Bradford win with fewer goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Bradford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 65% for Bradford to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for Burton Albion.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burton Albion

DLLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
17 Oct 2026A Peterborough2-2
10 Oct 2026A Doncaster0-1
03 Oct 2026H Huddersfield1-3
26 Sep 2026A Plymouth1-0
19 Sep 2026H Mansfield Town2-2

Bradford

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
17 Oct 2026H Stevenage2-0
10 Oct 2026H Leyton Orient0-0
03 Oct 2026A Reading1-1
19 Sep 2026A Luton1-0
12 Sep 2026A Notts County1-0
Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Bradford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Bradford's recent form is strong, securing 11 points in their last matches with a robust defensive record of conceding just 0.2 goals per game. Burton Albion has struggled, earning only 5 points and conceding 1.6 goals on average, highlighting a clear momentum advantage for Bradford heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Burton Albion Over 2.5
0%Bradford Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. However, Bradford's recent defensive improvements and Burton's attacking struggles suggest this match may see fewer goals, with Bradford's control likely limiting scoring opportunities.

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