Football Stats Hub

Worcester City crestWorcester City
v
Chorley crestChorley

FA Cup | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Worcester City v Chorley Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 09:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Worcester City and Chorley meet in an FA Cup fixture where defensive solidity appears to be a key feature. Worcester City has conceded just 0.8 goals per game recently, while Chorley has an even tighter defensive record, allowing only 0.67 goals per match. Both sides have relatively low scoring rates and a cautious approach is expected in this knockout setting, with both teams likely prioritizing defensive organization over attacking risk. The limited goal threat and recent form suggest a match where scoring chances may be scarce and goals limited.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Worcester City concedes only 0.8 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form
  • Chorley has an even better defensive record with 0.67 goals conceded per match
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates: 40% for Worcester City and 33% for Chorley
  • Recent head-to-head meeting featured just 2 goals, supporting a low-scoring outcome
  • Both sides show moderate BTTS rates, but defensive caution likely to limit goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Under 2.5 Goals at a 65.3% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 48.1%, indicating strong value in this low-scoring outcome. Defensive statistics for both Worcester City and Chorley underline a tendency to limit goals conceded, with recent matches showing modest goal totals. The FA Cup knockout context further supports a cautious tactical approach, reducing open-play chances. This combination of data and football context makes Under 2.5 Goals a compelling selection with a solid level of 85%.

Model Probability63.1% model chance vs 48.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance63.1% model chance vs 48.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive FormLow goals conceded per game for both teams
Strong positive
Recent Goal TrendsLow Over 2.5 Goals rates and modest head-to-head scoring
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given the defensive discipline shown by both Worcester City and Chorley in recent matches. The low scoring averages and cautious knockout match context suggest a tight game with limited goal-scoring opportunities. This bet aligns well with the tactical and statistical profile of the fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · betting angle

“This fixture's defensive resilience and low scoring rates make Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice, reflecting the tactical caution expected in an FA Cup knockout clash.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Worcester City concedes only 0.8 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form

Chorley has an even better defensive record with 0.67 goals conceded per match

Recent head-to-head meeting featured just 2 goals, supporting a low-scoring outcome

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last meeting between these teams, only 2 goals were scored, aligning with the trend of low-scoring matches.
  • Both sides have low Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, suggesting a slower tempo and fewer chances, which supports the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Worcester City1.6
Avg goals scored
Chorley2
Worcester City0.8
Avg goals conceded
Chorley0.67
Worcester City80%
BTTS rate
Chorley67%
Worcester City40%
Over 2.5 goals
Chorley33%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Goal trends show both teams have modest scoring and conceding rates, with Worcester City scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals per game, and Chorley scoring 2 while conceding 0.67. BTTS rates are moderate but the defensive emphasis in a knockout match suggests fewer goals and less likelihood of both teams scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more FA Cup analysisplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Worcester City

DWWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Chorley1-1
03 Oct 2026A Kettering Town3-1
18 Sep 2026H Stratford Town2-1
08 Sep 2026H Knowle W1-0
05 Sep 2026A Knowle W1-1

Chorley

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Worcester City1-1
03 Oct 2026A Barton Town Old Boys4-1
19 Sep 2026A Rylands1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +15 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Worcester City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Worcester City to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Chorley Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Chorley to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form shows Worcester City with 11 points and Chorley with 7 points, both maintaining strong defensive records. Worcester City concedes fewer than one goal per game, and Chorley concedes even less, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter consistent with Under 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionWorcester City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Worcester City to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Chorley Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Chorley to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 63.1% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Worcester City and 33% for Chorley, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Worcester City Over 2.5
33%Chorley Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last meeting between these teams, only 2 goals were scored, aligning with the trend of low-scoring matches. Both sides have low Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, suggesting a slower tempo and fewer chances, which supports the Under 2.5 Goals selection.

Loading deeper match data…