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Londrina crestLondrina
v
Cuiaba crestCuiaba

Serie B | Tue 20 Oct, 23:30

Londrina v Cuiaba Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 09:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B fixture between Cuiaba and Londrina at Arena Pantanal sets up a tactical battle defined by contrasting strengths and weaknesses. Cuiaba boasts a strong defensive record at home, conceding just 0.5 goals per match, and aims to control possession and tempo with a compact, disciplined approach. Londrina, despite struggling away with only 0.6 points per game, bring a more potent attack led by Bruno Santos de Oliveira, who has scored 7 goals this season. The match promises a cautious contest where defensive solidity and the ability to convert limited chances will be decisive.

BT4Y match pick

Londrina Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Cuiaba concedes only 0.5 goals per home match, showing defensive solidity.
  • Londrina averages 0.6 points per away game, indicating away struggles.
  • Bruno Santos de Oliveira leads Londrina's attack with 7 goals this season.
  • Recent form shows Cuiaba winning tight matches with narrow margins.
  • Londrina's defense concedes 1.57 goals per match, exposing vulnerability.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Londrina Win & Under 2.5 Goals based on Londrina's attacking potential combined with Cuiaba's defensive discipline, suggesting a low-scoring match with a possible Londrina upset. However, the are slightly short, indicating cautious staking is advised. The model is moderate, reflecting the tactical tension between Londrina's offensive threat and their defensive fragility. The limited away form of Londrina and Cuiaba's home defensive strength create a balanced scenario favoring a narrow Londrina win with few goals.

Londrina Away Points Per Game0.6
Neutral
Cuiaba Home Defensive Record0.5 goals conceded per match
Strong positive
Londrina Goals Scored1.21 per match
Positive
Londrina Defensive Vulnerability1.57 goals conceded per match
Negative
Model Confidence48%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Londrina's attacking edge, led by Bruno Santos de Oliveira, offers a clear route to goals, but their defensive weaknesses pose a challenge. Cuiaba's disciplined home defense and control of tempo make this a tight contest. The pick reflects Londrina's potential to edge a low-scoring game, capitalizing on moments of offensive quality despite their away struggles.

Main risk

Londrina have been livelier in attack but much more fragile without the ball.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical balance and attacking opportunity

“Londrina's ability to exploit defensive gaps while managing a typically fragile backline creates an intriguing low-scoring upset possibility against Cuiaba's structured defense.”

Key Data Signals

Londrina Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Cuiaba concedes only 0.5 goals per home match, showing defensive solidity.

Londrina averages 0.6 points per away game, indicating away struggles.

Bruno Santos de Oliveira leads Londrina's attack with 7 goals this season.

Recent form shows Cuiaba winning tight matches with narrow margins.

What To Watch In The Data

Londrina Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend aligns with both teams' defensive profiles and supports the likelihood of under 2.5 goals.
  • The tempo and tactical caution expected in this fixture further reinforce the probability of a tight, low-scoring game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina0.8
Avg goals scored
Cuiaba1
Londrina2
Avg goals conceded
Cuiaba0.8
Londrina60%
BTTS rate
Cuiaba0%
Londrina60%
Over 2.5 goals
Cuiaba40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 44% · edge +5.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Cuiaba's defensive record of conceding only 0.5 goals per home match contrasts with Londrina's higher concession rate of 1.57 goals per away match. Londrina's attack, averaging 1.21 goals per game, suggests some scoring potential, but Cuiaba's compact defense likely limits the total goals, supporting the under 2.5 goals route with a low BTTS rate for Cuiaba.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
13 Oct 2026A Athletic Club2-2
07 Oct 2026A Avai1-2
03 Oct 2026H Criciuma0-2
26 Sep 2026A Vila Nova0-2
20 Sep 2026H Fortaleza EC1-2

Cuiaba

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
11 Oct 2026H Avai0-1
08 Oct 2026A Vila Nova0-0
03 Oct 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
27 Sep 2026A CRB0-3
22 Sep 2026H Nautico Recife3-0
Market aligned with main pickLondrina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 56% · edge -10.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Cuiaba's recent form shows strong defensive performances with narrow wins and few goals conceded, reinforcing their identity as a compact, efficient side. Londrina's form is more volatile, with recent wins highlighting attacking potential but defensive lapses remain a concern. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Londrina must balance ambition with caution to secure a narrow victory under 2.5 goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Londrina v Cuiaba predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLondrina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 56% · edge -10.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
The 15.3% for Londrina Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 20% implied by the current price (-4.7 pts). Defensively secure with only 7 goals conceded in 14 Serie B games, they should capitalise on a fragile Londrina back line that allows 1.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Londrina Over 2.5
40%Cuiaba Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. This trend aligns with both teams' defensive profiles and supports the likelihood of under 2.5 goals. The tempo and tactical caution expected in this fixture further reinforce the probability of a tight, low-scoring game.

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