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Millonarios crestMillonarios
v
Once Caldas crestOnce Caldas

Primera A | Wed 14 Oct, 02:30

Millonarios v Once Caldas Stats

Data last updated: Tue 13 Oct 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Millonarios and Once Caldas meet in a Primera A clash where both sides have shown contrasting attacking outputs recently. Millonarios have averaged 1.8 goals per game and boast an 80% rate of both teams scoring, reflecting their offensive intent and occasional defensive lapses. Once Caldas, while scoring less frequently at 0.8 goals per game, have maintained a solid defensive record conceding just one goal per match on average. The fixture promises a tactical battle with Millonarios pushing forward and Once Caldas looking to capitalize on counter-attacks, setting the stage for goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Millonarios have an 80% BTTS rate this season, indicating frequent goal concessions and scoring.
  • Once Caldas have scored in 40% of their matches but maintain a strong defense conceding only one goal per game.
  • Recent form shows Millonarios scoring 1.8 goals per game, while Once Caldas average 0.8 goals.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, supporting a competitive and open game scenario.
  • Top attackers like R. Moreno have strong goal threat profiles, increasing scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 73.3% chance for both teams to score, supported by Millonarios' high BTTS rate of 80% and their average of 1.8 goals scored per game. Once Caldas, despite scoring less, concede an average of one goal per match, making it likely both sides find the net. The presence of key attackers such as R. Moreno, who consistently generate shots and goals, further strengthens the case. No data limitations affect , and the current at 1.83 offer positive value against the model's implied chance of 54.6%.

Millonarios BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Once Caldas Goals Conceded1.0 per game
Positive
Key Players' Goal ThreatR. Contreras and D. Moreno high shots and goals
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Implied Chance69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede, with Millonarios' attacking strength and Once Caldas' defensive resilience shaping this fixture. The likelihood of goals at both ends is high given the attacking roles of key players and recent form data, making the BTTS bet a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Millonarios' offensive pressure combined with Once Caldas' capacity to create chances on the break makes both teams scoring a compelling expectation in this match.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Millonarios have an 80% BTTS rate this season, indicating frequent goal concessions and scoring.

Once Caldas have scored in 40% of their matches but maintain a strong defense conceding only one goal per game.

Recent form shows Millonarios scoring 1.8 goals per game, while Once Caldas average 0.8 goals.

Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, supporting a competitive and open game scenario.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Millonarios’ 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Once Caldas’ 20%, suggesting Millonarios often push for higher scoring games, while Once Caldas may contribute to goal opportunities through counter-attacks and transitions.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Millonarios1.8
Avg goals scored
Once Caldas0.8
Millonarios1
Avg goals conceded
Once Caldas1
Millonarios80%
BTTS rate
Once Caldas40%
Millonarios60%
Over 2.5 goals
Once Caldas20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Millonarios average 1.8 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate, highlighting frequent goal exchanges. Once Caldas score less but concede at a rate that supports goals at both ends. The head-to-head average of 2.2 goals further confirms a pattern of open games with scoring from both teams.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Once Caldas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Millonarios to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Millonarios Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Once Caldas to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 69.6% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Millonarios show a 80% BTTS rate and Once Caldas show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Millonarios

DDDWW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 6D 1L
09 Oct 2026A Fortaleza FC1-1
30 Sep 2026A Independiente Medellin2-2
25 Sep 2026A Atletico Nacional1-1
19 Sep 2026H Chico3-0
14 Sep 2026A Cucuta2-1

Once Caldas

WDLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
10 Oct 2026H Llaneros1-0
04 Oct 2026A Internacional de Bogota1-1
26 Sep 2026H Bucaramanga1-3
20 Sep 2026A Deportivo Pasto0-1
17 Sep 2026H Deportes Tolima1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 85% · edge -0.7 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Millonarios to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Millonarios Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Once Caldas to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data shows Millonarios scoring 1.8 goals per game and securing 9 points in their last matches, while Once Caldas have scored 0.8 goals per game with 7 points. Millonarios' higher BTTS rate of 80% contrasts with Once Caldas' 40%, but both teams have conceded an average of one goal per game, supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Millonarios Over 2.5
20%Once Caldas Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. Millonarios’ 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Once Caldas’ 20%, suggesting Millonarios often push for higher scoring games, while Once Caldas may contribute to goal opportunities through counter-attacks and transitions.

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