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Guadalajara Chivas crestGuadalajara Chivas
v
Necaxa crestNecaxa

Liga MX | Wed 21 Oct, 01:07

Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa Stats

Data last updated: Tue 20 Oct 2026, 11:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Guadalajara Chivas face Necaxa in a Liga MX clash where offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape the outlook. Chivas, positioned 4th, have a solid home record with a balanced attack and defense, while Necaxa, struggling near the bottom, concede frequently but maintain a willingness to attack. Recent form shows Chivas securing 6 points with 1.4 goals per game, while Necaxa have managed only 1 point, scoring 1.2 but conceding 2.6 goals per match. This contrast suggests an open game with chances for both sides to find the net, setting the stage for a lively contest.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams average 60% BTTS rate this season, indicating frequent mutual scoring.
  • Necaxa concede an average of 2.6 goals per game, showing defensive fragility.
  • Chivas maintain a strong attacking presence with 16.8 shots and 5 shots on target per match.
  • H2H meetings average 2.8 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Key Necaxa attackers like J. Pedroza have high shot and goal involvement, boosting scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 73.3% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong attacking profiles and defensive lapses on both sides. Necaxa's high goals conceded rate and Chivas' consistent offensive output underpin this view. The at 1.67 offer positive value given the 59.9% implied chance, supported by solid recent form and player-level attacking threats. No data limitations affect , making this a robust selection for a goal-filled match.

Model Chance73.3% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model73.3% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Necaxa Defensive Record2.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Chivas Offensive Output16.8 shots, 5 SOT per game
Strong positive
Recent BTTS Rate60% both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open contest with both Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa pushing forward, given Chivas' solid home form and Necaxa's defensive struggles. The attacking talents on both sides, especially Necaxa's Carranza and Pedroza, increase the likelihood of goals at both ends, making both teams to score a sensible choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This match features contrasting styles with Chivas' balanced attack and Necaxa's defensive vulnerabilities, creating fertile ground for goals from both sides. The attacking players' shot volumes and goal involvement underline the BTTS potential.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams average 60% BTTS rate this season, indicating frequent mutual scoring.

Necaxa concede an average of 2.6 goals per game, showing defensive fragility.

Chivas maintain a strong attacking presence with 16.8 shots and 5 shots on target per match.

H2H meetings average 2.8 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals tally is 2.8, indicating a trend towards open, goal-rich matches.
  • Both teams' recent BTTS rates and attacking styles suggest this fixture will continue that pattern with multiple scoring chances and goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Guadalajara Chivas1.4
Avg goals scored
Necaxa1.2
Guadalajara Chivas1.2
Avg goals conceded
Necaxa2.6
Guadalajara Chivas60%
BTTS rate
Necaxa60%
Guadalajara Chivas40%
Over 2.5 goals
Necaxa60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, supported by Necaxa conceding 2.6 goals per game and Chivas averaging 1.4 goals scored. The average 2.8 goals in their last 10 meetings reflect an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Guadalajara Chivas

DDLDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
18 Oct 2026H Tigres UANL1-1
11 Oct 2026A Atlas1-1
27 Sep 2026H Club Queretaro0-2
20 Sep 2026A Club America2-2
14 Sep 2026H U.N.A.M. - Pumas3-0

Necaxa

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
17 Oct 2026H Atlas0-2
12 Oct 2026A CF Pachuca3-3
28 Sep 2026H Club America2-4
20 Sep 2026A Atletico San Luis1-3
12 Sep 2026H Puebla0-1
Best odds for this sectionNecaxa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
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Guadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Guadalajara Chivas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Necaxa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 21%
5
Check odds @ 5
Recent form shows Chivas earning 6 points with 1.4 goals per game, reflecting steady offensive output. Necaxa's 1 point and higher goals conceded highlight defensive struggles but also a willingness to attack, supporting the likelihood of goals from both sides in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Necaxa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Guadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Guadalajara Chivas Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Necaxa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 21%
5
Check odds @ 5
The 73.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+13.4 pts). Guadalajara Chivas show a 60% BTTS rate and Necaxa show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Guadalajara Chivas Over 2.5
60%Necaxa Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals tally is 2.8, indicating a trend towards open, goal-rich matches. Both teams' recent BTTS rates and attacking styles suggest this fixture will continue that pattern with multiple scoring chances and goals.

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