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Gillingham crestGillingham
v
Port Vale crestPort Vale

League Two | Tue 20 Oct, 20:00

Gillingham v Port Vale Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 12:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gillingham and Port Vale meet in a League Two clash where discipline and physicality are likely to be key factors. Gillingham, sitting 6th with 16 points, face a Port Vale side struggling at 21st with 11 points. Recent form shows Gillingham averaging 2.6 yellow cards per game and Port Vale 2.4, indicating a potentially intense, competitive match. Both teams have contrasting attacking outputs, but the battle in midfield and defensive duels could lead to a high card count. The fixture’s stakes and league positions suggest a tense encounter with aggressive challenges expected.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Gillingham average 2.6 yellow cards per match, Port Vale 2.4, indicating frequent fouling.
  • Both teams have physical playing styles leading to disciplinary actions.
  • Recent matches involving Gillingham show 80% over 2.5 goals, often accompanied by increased fouls and cards.
  • Player data highlights several card-risk players, including Z. Harris for Gillingham.
  • The model estimates a 70.5% chance for over 3.5 cards, showing strong statistical backing.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Cards with a 70.5% chance, supported by both teams’ high average yellow card counts and aggressive playing styles. Gillingham’s 2.6 yellows per game and Port Vale’s 2.4 reflect a match prone to fouls and disciplinary actions. Player-level data shows multiple individuals with significant card risk, reinforcing the likelihood of a card-heavy game. The price offers positive value with an 8.8% edge, making this a statistically and contextually sound selection for bettors.

Gillingham average yellows per game2.6
Strong positive
Port Vale average yellows per game2.4
Strong positive
Model chance for Over 3.5 Cards66.6% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+4.9 pts)
Strong positive
Value edge vs implied chance66.6% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+4.9 pts)
Positive
Player card risk indicatorsMultiple players with high card risk
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physical and competitive match with both Gillingham and Port Vale engaging in frequent challenges that could lead to multiple cards. The high average yellows per game for both teams and the presence of players prone to fouls suggest that Over 3.5 Cards is a sensible pick. The data and tactical context align to support a match where discipline will be tested.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture features two teams with aggressive defensive profiles and several players known for fouling, making Over 3.5 Cards a compelling market. The statistical trends and player card risks point to a match where refereeing decisions will be pivotal.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Gillingham average 2.6 yellow cards per match, Port Vale 2.4, indicating frequent fouling.

Both teams have physical playing styles leading to disciplinary actions.

Player data highlights several card-risk players, including Z. Harris for Gillingham.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating moderately open games.
  • While this is not directly linked to cards, higher tempo and goal opportunities often correlate with increased fouling and disciplinary actions.
  • The trend suggests a match environment conducive to multiple cards being issued.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gillingham1.6
Avg goals scored
Port Vale0.6
Gillingham1.4
Avg goals conceded
Port Vale0.6
Gillingham40%
BTTS rate
Port Vale0%
Gillingham80%
Over 2.5 goals
Port Vale0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Gillingham’s recent matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Port Vale’s games have been low scoring with no over 2.5 goals recorded recently. This contrast suggests Gillingham’s attacking style may provoke defensive fouls, contributing indirectly to the card count. BTTS rates are low for Port Vale, indicating defensive focus that may increase physical challenges.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 62% · edge +4.9 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Port Vale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Port Vale to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Gillingham to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 66.6% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+4.9 pts). Port Vale have the higher yellow-card average at 2.4, while Gillingham sit at 2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gillingham

LWDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
17 Oct 2026A Accrington ST1-3
10 Oct 2026A Rotherham4-1
03 Oct 2026H Newport County0-0
26 Sep 2026A York0-3
19 Sep 2026H Bristol Rovers3-0

Port Vale

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
17 Oct 2026H Chesterfield1-0
10 Oct 2026H Grimsby1-0
19 Sep 2026A Walsall0-2
12 Sep 2026H Exeter City1-0
05 Sep 2026A Salford City0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 71% · edge +3 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Port Vale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Port Vale to WinBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Gillingham to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows Gillingham averaging 2.6 yellow cards and Port Vale 2.4 per game, consistent with a physical playing style. Gillingham’s matches often feature over 2.5 goals, which can increase fouling intensity. Port Vale’s lower scoring but aggressive defense suggests a match where fouls and cards will accumulate, supporting the Over 3.5 Cards pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Gillingham Over 2.5
0%Port Vale Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating moderately open games. While this is not directly linked to cards, higher tempo and goal opportunities often correlate with increased fouling and disciplinary actions. The trend suggests a match environment conducive to multiple cards being issued.

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