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Crawley Town crestCrawley Town
v
Shrewsbury crestShrewsbury

League Two | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Crawley Town v Shrewsbury Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 12:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two fixture features Crawley Town hosting Shrewsbury, with Shrewsbury currently positioned 14th and Crawley Town struggling at the bottom in 24th place. Shrewsbury have shown more consistency recently, accumulating 8 points in their last matches compared to Crawley Town's single point. Defensively, Shrewsbury have been more solid, conceding just 1 goal per game on average, while Crawley Town have allowed 2.4. The away side's tactical discipline and recent form suggest they are well placed to challenge for a win in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Shrewsbury to Win

  • Shrewsbury sit 10 places above Crawley Town in the League Two table with better recent form.
  • Shrewsbury concede fewer goals per game (1.0) compared to Crawley Town (2.4).
  • Crawley Town have a high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%), indicating open games but defensive vulnerability.
  • Shrewsbury average more corners (7.2) and shots (14.2) per game, showing attacking intent.
  • Shrewsbury's key players like K. Brown contribute with shots and goal threat, enhancing their offensive edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Shrewsbury to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior defensive record and more consistent recent form compared to Crawley Town. Shrewsbury's ability to limit goals conceded (1.0 per game) contrasts with Crawley Town's defensive struggles (2.4 conceded). Additionally, Shrewsbury's attacking metrics, including higher average shots and corners, support their potential to control the game. The model views the current of 2.5 as offering positive value given the implied chance is only 40%, making Shrewsbury a strong pick based on form and statistical indicators.

Recent FormShrewsbury have gained 8 points recently vs Crawley Town's 1 point
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthShrewsbury concede 1 goal per game, Crawley 2.4
Strong positive
Attacking PressureShrewsbury average 14.2 shots and 7.2 corners per game
Positive
Value Edge55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Shrewsbury's recent form and defensive solidity make them the likely winners against a Crawley Town side struggling at the bottom of the table. Their ability to generate more shots and corners reflects an attacking threat that Crawley Town may find difficult to contain, supporting in an away victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Shrewsbury's balance of defensive resilience and attacking activity positions them well to capitalize on Crawley Town's defensive vulnerabilities in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Shrewsbury to Win evidence

Shrewsbury sit 10 places above Crawley Town in the League Two table with better recent form.

Shrewsbury concede fewer goals per game (1.0) compared to Crawley Town (2.4).

Crawley Town have a high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%), indicating open games but defensive vulnerability.

Shrewsbury average more corners (7.2) and shots (14.2) per game, showing attacking intent.

What To Watch In The Data

Shrewsbury to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.9, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Crawley Town's high Over 2.5 rate this season suggests matches often feature multiple goals, but Shrewsbury's more measured defensive approach could temper the scoring, resulting in a balanced game tempo with goal opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crawley Town1.2
Avg goals scored
Shrewsbury1.2
Crawley Town2.4
Avg goals conceded
Shrewsbury1
Crawley Town80%
BTTS rate
Shrewsbury60%
Crawley Town80%
Over 2.5 goals
Shrewsbury40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Crawley Town's matches frequently feature goals, with an 80% Over 2.5 rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Shrewsbury's lower Over 2.5 rate (40%) and 60% BTTS rate suggest a more controlled approach. This contrast suggests a potential for goals but with Shrewsbury likely to manage the game effectively.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickShrewsbury to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Shrewsbury Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 55% for Shrewsbury to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Shrewsbury have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 1 for Crawley Town.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crawley Town

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 6L
17 Oct 2026A Salford City1-2
10 Oct 2026H Chesterfield2-2
19 Sep 2026A Grimsby0-2
12 Sep 2026H Cheltenham1-3
05 Sep 2026A Accrington ST2-3

Shrewsbury

WLWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
17 Oct 2026H Bristol Rovers1-0
10 Oct 2026H Exeter City0-1
03 Oct 2026A Grimsby2-1
26 Sep 2026H Colchester2-2
19 Sep 2026A Crewe1-1
Market aligned with main pickShrewsbury to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Shrewsbury Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Shrewsbury have collected 8 points recently, showing improved consistency and defensive organization, conceding just 1 goal per game. Crawley Town's form is poor, with only 1 point and a leaky defense conceding 2.4 goals per match. This form disparity underlines Shrewsbury's momentum and readiness to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Crawley Town Over 2.5
40%Shrewsbury Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.9, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Crawley Town's high Over 2.5 rate this season suggests matches often feature multiple goals, but Shrewsbury's more measured defensive approach could temper the scoring, resulting in a balanced game tempo with goal opportunities for both sides.

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