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Notts County crestNotts County
v
Sheffield Wednesday crestSheffield Wednesday

League One | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45

Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday Stats

Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 14:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sheffield Wednesday arrive in strong form for this League One clash against struggling Notts County. Sitting sixth in the table with 18 points, Sheffield Wednesday have been efficient both offensively and defensively, conceding just 0.6 goals per game while scoring 1.8 on average. Notts County, positioned 23rd with 7 points, have struggled to find the net and maintain defensive solidity, averaging only 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Sheffield Wednesday's attacking momentum and superior recent results set the stage for a confident away performance in this midweek fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Sheffield Wednesday to Win

  • Sheffield Wednesday hold a strong 70% to win, with positive value at 2.15 .
  • Notts County have scored just 0.4 goals per game, while Sheffield Wednesday average 1.8 goals scored.
  • Sheffield Wednesday concede only 0.6 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Sheffield Wednesday average 14.2 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, outshooting Notts County significantly.
  • Recent form shows Sheffield Wednesday earned 9 points recently compared to Notts County's single point.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sheffield Wednesday to win due to their superior attacking and defensive metrics, including a high goal-scoring rate and strong defensive record. Their recent form, with 9 points gained, contrasts sharply with Notts County's struggles. The away side's shot volume and quality further underline their control, making the of 2.15 a positive value proposition. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormSheffield Wednesday 9 points vs Notts County 1 point
Strong positive
Goals For/AgainstSheffield Wednesday 1.8/0.6 vs Notts County 0.4/1.6
Strong positive
Shots and Shots on TargetSheffield Wednesday 14.2 shots, 5.2 SOT vs Notts County 8.6 shots, 1.8 SOT
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sheffield Wednesday's tactical discipline and attacking efficiency make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their consistent recent form and superior shot creation underline their ability to break down Notts County's defense, who have struggled to score and accumulate points this season.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sheffield Wednesday's blend of attacking threat and defensive stability positions them well to capitalize on Notts County's vulnerabilities, especially given the visitors' higher shot volume and clinical finishing.”

Key Data Signals

Sheffield Wednesday to Win evidence

Sheffield Wednesday hold a strong 70% to win, with positive value at 2.15 .

Notts County have scored just 0.4 goals per game, while Sheffield Wednesday average 1.8 goals scored.

Sheffield Wednesday concede only 0.6 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.

Sheffield Wednesday average 14.2 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, outshooting Notts County significantly.

What To Watch In The Data

Sheffield Wednesday to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3, suggesting a moderately open game historically.
  • Sheffield Wednesday's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate this season supports the likelihood of an attacking encounter with multiple goals, driven by their offensive style and Notts County's defensive challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Notts County0.4
Avg goals scored
Sheffield Wednesday1.8
Notts County1.6
Avg goals conceded
Sheffield Wednesday0.6
Notts County40%
BTTS rate
Sheffield Wednesday40%
Notts County20%
Over 2.5 goals
Sheffield Wednesday60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Goal trends favor Sheffield Wednesday, who average 1.8 goals per game while conceding only 0.6, contrasting with Notts County's low scoring rate of 0.4 goals. Both teams to score rates are moderate at 40%, indicating a likelihood of a Sheffield Wednesday win with limited risk of BTTS. Over 2.5 goals occur in 60% of Sheffield Wednesday's matches, supporting a potentially open game from the visitors' side.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSheffield Wednesday to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Sheffield Wednesday Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 61.5% for Sheffield Wednesday to Win sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Sheffield Wednesday have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 1 for Notts County.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Notts County

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 4L
17 Oct 2026A Wycombe0-2
10 Oct 2026H Oxford United1-2
19 Sep 2026A Reading0-2
12 Sep 2026H Bradford0-1
05 Sep 2026A Huddersfield1-1

Sheffield Wednesday

WDDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 1L
17 Oct 2026H AFC Wimbledon5-0
10 Oct 2026A Huddersfield2-2
19 Sep 2026H Stockport County0-0
12 Sep 2026H Wigan0-0
05 Sep 2026A Peterborough2-1
Market aligned with main pickSheffield Wednesday to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Sheffield Wednesday Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 9 points recently, demonstrating consistent winning form, while Notts County have managed only 1 point, reflecting ongoing struggles. This disparity in momentum suggests Sheffield Wednesday enter the match with and rhythm, likely to impose their game plan effectively.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Notts County Over 2.5
60%Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3, suggesting a moderately open game historically. Sheffield Wednesday's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate this season supports the likelihood of an attacking encounter with multiple goals, driven by their offensive style and Notts County's defensive challenges.

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