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FC Porto crestFC Porto
v
PSV Eindhoven crestPSV Eindhoven

UEFA Champions League | Tue 20 Oct, 20:00

FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven Stats

Data last updated: Tue 10 Nov 2026, 07:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Porto face PSV Eindhoven in UEFA Champions League on Tue 20 Oct, 20:00. Porto welcome PSV Eindhoven to the Estádio do Dragão on Tuesday, 20 October, with both clubs searching for their first victory of the Champions League league phase.

BT4Y best bet

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score

  • At 15/8, Porto to win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Both teams scoring is credible given PSV's scoring record and Porto's occasional defensive lapses, supported by Jan Bednarek's defensive return bolstering Porto's backline.
  • FC Porto show a 50% BTTS rate and PSV Eindhoven show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • FC Porto average 1 goals scored and PSV Eindhoven average 0.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 50% for Porto to win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. FC Porto show a 50% BTTS rate and PSV Eindhoven show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Both teams scoring is credible given PSV's scoring record and Porto's occasional defensive lapses, supported by Jan Bednarek's defensive return bolstering Porto's backline.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Strong positive
FC Porto show a 50% BTTS rate and PSV Eindhoven.Visible data support
Positive
FC Porto average 1 goals scored and PSV Eindhoven average.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams scoring is credible given PSV's scoring record.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because both teams scoring is credible given PSV's scoring record and Porto's occasional defensive lapses, supported by Jan Bednarek's defensive return bolstering Porto's backline. FC Porto show a that shared-scoring rate rate and PSV Eindhoven show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. PSV possess attacking threats, but their recent away performances and defensive instability create opportunities for the Portuguese champions.

Main risk

PSV possess attacking threats, but their recent away performances and defensive instability create opportunities for the Portuguese champions.

Key Data Signals

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams scoring is credible given PSV's scoring record and Porto's occasional defensive lapses, supported by Jan Bednarek's.

FC Porto show a 50% BTTS rate and PSV Eindhoven show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

FC Porto average 1 goals scored and PSV Eindhoven average 0.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Porto to win and Both Teams to Score notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Porto1
Avg goals scored
PSV Eindhoven0.5
FC Porto2.5
Avg goals conceded
PSV Eindhoven1
FC Porto50%
BTTS rate
PSV Eindhoven50%
FC Porto50%
Over 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven0%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 50% for FC Porto and 50% for PSV Eindhoven, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
PSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
PSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.6
Check odds @ 4.6
FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
FC Porto to WinBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Porto

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
14 Oct 2026A Real Betis2-3
08 Sep 2026H Manchester City0-2

PSV Eindhoven

LD
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
13 Oct 2026A RB Leipzig0-1
10 Sep 2026H Shakhtar Donetsk1-1
Best odds for this sectionPSV Eindhoven Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
PSV Eindhoven to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.6
Check odds @ 4.6
FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
FC Porto to WinBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%FC Porto Over 2.5
0%PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: FC Porto sit at 50% and PSV Eindhoven sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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