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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
v
Boca Juniors crestBoca Juniors

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 21 Oct, 01:30

Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 00:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vasco DA Gama face Boca Juniors in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wed 21 Oct, 01:30. That defensive resilience could prove decisive in the return fixture, where protecting their advantage without becoming overly passive will be central to Emanuel's approach.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

BTTS Yes

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 53%, above the 47% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 9/10, BTTS Yes implies roughly 53%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • The match's decisive nature supports backing both teams to score in this second leg.
  • Vasco DA Gama show a 20% BTTS rate and Boca Juniors show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Vasco DA Gama average 1.4 goals scored and Boca Juniors average 1.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.
Price warning

BTTS Yes is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 53% while the model sits nearer 47% (-5.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 9.5 Corners shows a +9.9 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 47% for BTTS Yes sits against roughly 53% implied by the current price. Vasco DA Gama show a 20% BTTS rate and Boca Juniors show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The match's decisive nature supports backing both teams to score in this second leg.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 53% implied
Negative
Vasco DA Gama show a 20% BTTS rate and Boca.Visible data support
Positive
Vasco DA Gama average 1.4 goals scored and Boca Juniors.Visible data support
Positive
The match's decisive nature supports backing both teams.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the match's decisive nature supports backing both teams to score in this second leg. Vasco DA Gama show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Boca Juniors show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Their Copa Sudamericana results have been less convincing recently, however, with defeat in the first leg following a draw against Sao Paulo.

Main risk

Their Copa Sudamericana results have been less convincing recently, however, with defeat in the first leg following a draw against Sao Paulo.

Key Data Signals

BTTS Yes evidence

The match's decisive nature supports backing both teams to score in this second leg.

Vasco DA Gama show a 20% BTTS rate and Boca Juniors show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Vasco DA Gama average 1.4 goals scored and Boca Juniors average 1.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS Yes notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama1.4
Avg goals scored
Boca Juniors1.8
Vasco DA Gama0.2
Avg goals conceded
Boca Juniors0.6
Vasco DA Gama20%
BTTS rate
Boca Juniors40%
Vasco DA Gama20%
Over 2.5 goals
Boca Juniors40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 20% for Vasco DA Gama and 40% for Boca Juniors, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 46% · edge +1.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Boca Juniors to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Boca Juniors Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS Yes is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
14 Oct 2026A Boca Juniors1-0
15 Sep 2026H Santa Fe2-0
08 Sep 2026A Santa Fe0-0
20 Aug 2026A Olimpia4-1
13 Aug 2026H Olimpia0-0

Boca Juniors

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
14 Oct 2026H Vasco DA Gama0-1
16 Sep 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
09 Sep 2026H Sao Paulo1-0
18 Aug 2026A Deportivo Recoleta4-0
11 Aug 2026H Deportivo Recoleta3-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 71% · edge +3.8 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Boca Juniors to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Boca Juniors Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
40%Boca Juniors Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Vasco DA Gama sit at 20% and Boca Juniors sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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