Football Stats Hub

Liverpool crestLiverpool
v
Villarreal crestVillarreal

UEFA Champions League | Tue 20 Oct, 20:00

Liverpool v Villarreal Stats

Data last updated: Tue 10 Nov 2026, 05:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liverpool face Villarreal in UEFA Champions League on Tue 20 Oct, 20:00. Liverpool's recent strong form and high Champions League scoring contrast with Villarreal's poor European away record. Liverpool's inconsistent home form and Villarreal's recent draw pose some risk to this outcome. Liverpool create more chances, leaving Villarreal under pressure to match their attacking tempo.

BT4Y best bet

Match and Both Teams to Score: Liverpool

  • At 8/5, Match and Both Teams to Score: Liverpool implies roughly 39%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 54%.
  • Defensive lapses on both sides suggest Villarreal can score, supporting a Liverpool win with both teams scoring.
  • Liverpool show a 100% BTTS rate and Villarreal show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Liverpool average 4 goals scored and Villarreal average 2.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 54% for Match and Both Teams to Score: Liverpool sits against roughly 39% implied by the current price. Liverpool show a 100% BTTS rate and Villarreal show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Defensive lapses on both sides suggest Villarreal can score, supporting a Liverpool win with both teams scoring.

Model chance vs price54% model chance against roughly 39% implied
Strong positive
Liverpool show a 100% BTTS rate and Villarreal show a.Visible data support
Positive
Liverpool average 4 goals scored and Villarreal average 2.5, so.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive lapses on both sides suggest Villarreal can score.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because defensive lapses on both sides suggest Villarreal can score, supporting a Liverpool win with both teams scoring. Liverpool show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Villarreal show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. However, Anfield has not provided its usual consistency this season.

Main risk

However, Anfield has not provided its usual consistency this season.

Key Data Signals

Match and Both Teams to Score: Liverpool evidence

Defensive lapses on both sides suggest Villarreal can score, supporting a Liverpool win with both teams scoring.

Liverpool show a 100% BTTS rate and Villarreal show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Liverpool average 4 goals scored and Villarreal average 2.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Match and Both Teams to Score: Liverpool notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Liverpool4
Avg goals scored
Villarreal2.5
Liverpool2
Avg goals conceded
Villarreal2
Liverpool100%
BTTS rate
Villarreal100%
Liverpool100%
Over 2.5 goals
Villarreal100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Champions League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Liverpool v Villarrealcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Villarreal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Liverpool Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Liverpool to WinBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Liverpool

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
14 Oct 2026A Lask Linz6-3
09 Sep 2026H Atletico Madrid2-1

Villarreal

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
13 Oct 2026H Napoli3-1
08 Sep 2026A Borussia Dortmund2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 88% · edge -4.6 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Villarreal Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Liverpool Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Liverpool to WinBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Villarreal to WinBet365 guide price · model 17%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 21%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Liverpool Over 2.5
100%Villarreal Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Liverpool sit at 100% and Villarreal sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.75 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Loading deeper match data…