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Liberia crestLiberia
v
Sierra Leone crestSierra Leone

Friendlies | Tue 09 Jun, 19:30

Liberia v Sierra Leone Stats

Data last updated: Thu 09 Jul 2026, 11:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liberia face Sierra Leone in Friendlies on Tue 09 Jun, 19:30. Given Liberia's compact 4-4-2 setup and modest goal output, another cagey, low-scoring tactical battle is heavily anticipated at the Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 6/10, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Recent meetings between these rivals strictly enforce a tight pattern, with 83% of direct encounters finishing with under 2.5 goals.
  • Sierra Leone are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Liberia at 0.67.
  • BTTS rates of 33% for Liberia and 0% for Sierra Leone show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Sierra Leone are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Liberia at 0.67. Recent meetings between these rivals strictly enforce a tight pattern, with 83% of direct encounters finishing with under 2.5 goals.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 63% implied
Neutral
Sierra Leone are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 33% for Liberia and 0% for Sierra.Visible data support
Positive
Recent meetings between these rivals strictly enforce a tight.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because recent meetings between these rivals strictly enforce a tight pattern, with 83% of direct encounters finishing with under 2.5 goals. Sierra Leone are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Liberia at 0.67. That tells a clear story: they have not been completely overwhelmed, but they have lacked punch in the final third.

Main risk

That tells a clear story: they have not been completely overwhelmed, but they have lacked punch in the final third.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Recent meetings between these rivals strictly enforce a tight pattern, with 83% of direct encounters finishing with under.

Sierra Leone are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Liberia at 0.67.

BTTS rates of 33% for Liberia and 0% for Sierra Leone show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Liberia0.67
Avg goals scored
Sierra Leone1
Liberia1.33
Avg goals conceded
Sierra Leone0
Liberia33%
BTTS rate
Sierra Leone0%
Liberia33%
Over 2.5 goals
Sierra Leone0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 64% · edge +2.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 33% for Liberia and 0% for Sierra Leone, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSierra Leone to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 33% · edge +25.3 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Sierra Leone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
DrawBetUK guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Liberia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Sierra Leone to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Liberia

LDL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
06 Jun 2026A Sierra Leone0-1
31 Mar 2026H Libya2-2
27 Mar 2026A Benin0-1

Sierra Leone

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
06 Jun 2026H Liberia1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 83% vs implied 62% · edge +21.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Sierra Leone to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
3
Check odds @ 3
Sierra Leone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Liberia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Liberia to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Liberia wins
2Draws
3Sierra Leone wins
06 Jun 2026Sierra Leone v Liberia1-0
01 Nov 2024Liberia v Sierra Leone1-1
27 Oct 2024Sierra Leone v Liberia1-2
27 Mar 2022Liberia v Sierra Leone0-1
08 Sep 2019Sierra Leone v Liberia1-0
04 Sep 2019Liberia v Sierra Leone3-1
Best odds for this sectionSierra Leone to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 33% · edge +25.3 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
DrawBetUK guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Liberia to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The head-to-head sample gives context for Sierra Leone to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

Liberia4
Played
Sierra Leone2
Liberia1.3
Avg goals for
Sierra Leone1
Liberia1.3
Avg goals against
Sierra Leone1.5
Liberia0
Clean sheets
Sierra Leone1
Best odds for this sectionSierra Leone to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 33% · edge +25.3 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Sierra Leone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Liberia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Liberia to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season data supports Sierra Leone to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Liberia Over 2.5
0%Sierra Leone Over 2.5
1.63H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Liberia sit at 33% and Sierra Leone sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1.63 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.