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Cagliari crestCagliari
v
Bologna crestBologna

Serie A | Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

Cagliari v Bologna Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 12:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A fixture features Bologna hosting Cagliari in a contest shaped by contrasting trajectories and tactical approaches. Bologna, traditionally strong at home against Cagliari, have suffered a severe downturn with seven losses in their last nine home league matches and a recent scoring drought. Cagliari arrive motivated by survival instincts after a morale-boosting win over Atalanta but carry the burden of three consecutive away defeats and defensive frailties. Missing key attacking players, Cagliari are likely to adopt a cautious, containment-focused setup, while Bologna's possession control and reliance on Riccardo Orsolini for offensive spark will be tested by Cagliari's resilience. The match promises a tense battle where momentum and defensive solidity may dictate the outcome.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Draw

  • Bologna lost 7 of last 9 home league matches, scoring drought evident
  • Cagliari fighting to avoid fourth consecutive away defeat
  • Riccardo Orsolini scored 6 goals in last 6 Serie A meetings vs Cagliari
  • Cagliari missing key attackers Mendy and Borrelli from recent win
  • Draw offers a balance between Bologna's home edge and current poor form
Price warning

Draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 35% while the model sits nearer 23% (-11.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The draw selection reflects the tactical stalemate expected between a Bologna side struggling to convert possession into goals and a Cagliari team prioritizing defensive solidity amid key attacking absences. Bologna's recent home form erosion and Cagliari's away defensive vulnerabilities create conditions for a low-scoring, balanced match. Despite the short price and negative , the football context supports a cautious approach, suggesting a draw is plausible if both teams maintain their current defensive shapes and attacking limitations persist.

Bologna home form7 losses in last 9 home matches
Strong positive
Cagliari away defense1.71 goals conceded per away game
Positive
Bologna scoring droughtNo goals in last 2 league matches
Strong positive
Cagliari missing attackersMendy and Borrelli unavailable
Positive
Price sensitivity23.3% model chance vs 34.7% implied (-11.4 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The draw is a sound prediction given Bologna's faltering home form and Cagliari's defensive focus amid missing key attackers. Bologna's historical control at home is offset by current struggles to create and convert chances, while Cagliari's survival drive and defensive resilience suggest a tight contest unlikely to produce a winner. This balance of tactical caution and form fragility supports a draw outcome.

Main risk

Options like Semih Kilicsoy or Andrea Belotti may step in, but the chemistry and sharpness of last week will be hard to replicate.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Bologna's recent home struggles and Cagliari's defensive resilience amid key absences set the stage for a tactical stalemate, making a draw the most plausible outcome in this Serie A clash.”

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Bologna lost 7 of last 9 home league matches, scoring drought evident

Cagliari fighting to avoid fourth consecutive away defeat

Riccardo Orsolini scored 6 goals in last 6 Serie A meetings vs Cagliari

Cagliari missing key attackers Mendy and Borrelli from recent win

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Bologna's higher over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Cagliari's lower rate, suggesting the fixture could swing either way in tempo and goal volume.
  • Recent defensive issues and missing attackers hint at a match with controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cagliari1
Avg goals scored
Bologna1.2
Cagliari1.2
Avg goals conceded
Bologna1.6
Cagliari40%
BTTS rate
Bologna80%
Cagliari40%
Over 2.5 goals
Bologna60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have shown recent scoring struggles, with Bologna failing to score in their last two matches and Cagliari missing key offensive players. However, both sides have conceded regularly, suggesting a moderate chance for goals on each side. A low-scoring draw with both teams scoring once fits the tactical and personnel context.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 35% · edge -11.4 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Cagliari Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 23.3% for Draw sits against roughly 34.7% implied by the current price (-11.4 pts). Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Bologna. Bologna have lost seven of their last nine home matches and failed to score in their last two outings.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cagliari

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
19 Oct 2026A Monza0-4
11 Oct 2026H Juventus1-1
19 Sep 2026A Udinese1-0
12 Sep 2026A Atalanta2-1
07 Sep 2026H Lecce1-0

Bologna

LWDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 4L
17 Oct 2026H Inter1-3
11 Oct 2026A Lecce2-1
19 Sep 2026H Torino1-1
13 Sep 2026A Napoli0-1
06 Sep 2026H Sassuolo2-2
Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 35% · edge -11.4 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Cagliari Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Bologna Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Bologna to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Bologna's recent form is poor with only 5 points and a scoring drought, reflecting a team losing momentum and at home. Cagliari's form is slightly better with 10 points and recent wins, fueled by survival urgency. This contrast highlights Bologna's vulnerability and Cagliari's resilience, supporting a cautious, low-risk outcome like a draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cagliari Over 2.5
60%Bologna Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2, indicating moderate scoring. Bologna's higher over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Cagliari's lower rate, suggesting the fixture could swing either way in tempo and goal volume. Recent defensive issues and missing attackers hint at a match with controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring chances.

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