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Rochdale crestRochdale
v
Accrington ST crestAccrington ST

League Two | Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

Rochdale v Accrington ST Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 16:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rochdale and Accrington ST meet in a League Two clash where both sides have shown contrasting defensive records and attacking intent this season. Rochdale averages 6.6 corners per game while Accrington ST leads with 8.2, reflecting their proactive wing play and set-piece focus. Both teams have similar points tally and are positioned mid-table, adding competitive edge to this fixture. Recent form data highlights Rochdale's openness and Accrington's efficiency, suggesting a contest with sustained pressure and territorial battles likely to generate numerous corner opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Rochdale averages 6.6 corners per match, showing active wing play.
  • Accrington ST leads League Two with 8.2 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Both teams have mid-table standings with similar points, increasing competitive intensity.
  • Recent matches show Rochdale concedes 1.4 goals per game, encouraging attacking play.
  • Accrington ST's defensive solidity contrasts with their high corner count, suggesting set-piece reliance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 8.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 75% chance, well above the implied market chance of 61.7%. Both teams generate high corner counts, with Accrington ST averaging over eight corners and Rochdale close behind. Their attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities create frequent set-piece situations. The model is high, supported by consistent corner statistics and recent form. No price warnings apply, making this a solid selection for standard stakes.

Model Chance75% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+13.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance75% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+13.3 pts)
Positive
Value Edge75% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+13.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Corner Averages6.6 (Rochdale), 8.2 (Accrington ST)
Strong positive
Defensive OpennessRochdale concedes 1.4 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively contest with both Rochdale and Accrington ST pushing for territorial control, which historically leads to numerous corners. Accrington's higher corner average combined with Rochdale's willingness to attack suggests this market is well supported by tactical and statistical evidence.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“The corner count is a natural outcome of Accrington ST's aggressive wing play and Rochdale's open defensive style, making Over 8.5 Corners a compelling angle for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Rochdale averages 6.6 corners per match, showing active wing play.

Accrington ST leads League Two with 8.2 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.

Both teams have mid-table standings with similar points, increasing competitive intensity.

Recent matches show Rochdale concedes 1.4 goals per game, encouraging attacking play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is three, suggesting open matches with attacking intent.
  • While this section focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and openness implied by these goal averages also correlate with increased corner opportunities through sustained offensive pressure and transitions.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rochdale1.6
Avg goals scored
Accrington ST1.4
Rochdale1.4
Avg goals conceded
Accrington ST0.6
Rochdale80%
BTTS rate
Accrington ST60%
Rochdale60%
Over 2.5 goals
Accrington ST20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have contrasting goal trends; Rochdale scores and concedes more freely, with an 80% BTTS rate, while Accrington ST is more defensive with a 60% BTTS rate. This dynamic suggests open play periods that often lead to corner situations, supporting a higher corner count rather than a low-scoring, tight match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Accrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Accrington ST to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Rochdale to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Rochdale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 75% for Over 8.5 Corners sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+13.3 pts). Accrington ST lead the corner sample at 8.2 per match, with Rochdale lower at 6.6.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more League Two analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rochdale

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
20 Oct 2026H Grimsby2-2
17 Oct 2026A Crewe2-3
10 Oct 2026A Tranmere1-1
03 Oct 2026H Swindon Town1-0
26 Sep 2026A Fleetwood Town2-1

Accrington ST

DWDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
20 Oct 2026A York1-1
17 Oct 2026H Gillingham3-1
10 Oct 2026A Oldham0-0
03 Oct 2026H Cheltenham2-0
26 Sep 2026A Swindon Town1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +8.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Accrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Accrington ST to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Rochdale to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Rochdale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form shows Rochdale averaging 6.6 corners and Accrington ST 8.2 per match, maintaining a high tempo and territorial advantage. Both teams have been involved in matches with multiple corners, reflecting their attacking styles and defensive lapses, which supports the Over 8.5 Corners selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Rochdale Over 2.5
20%Accrington ST Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is three, suggesting open matches with attacking intent. While this section focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and openness implied by these goal averages also correlate with increased corner opportunities through sustained offensive pressure and transitions.

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