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SC Paderborn 07 crestSC Paderborn 07
v
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV

Bundesliga | Sat 24 Oct, 14:30

SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Paderborn 07 hosts Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga clash where both teams seek stability amid contrasting recent trajectories. Paderborn's home form shows attacking promise but defensive fragility, highlighted by 18 consecutive home matches without a clean sheet. Hamburg arrives on a three-match winning streak, boosted by improved attacking efficiency but still vulnerable defensively on the road, conceding an average of three goals per away match. The tactical battle will focus on Paderborn's high shot volume against Hamburg's leaky defense, with both sides missing key players, setting the stage for an open and competitive encounter with significant implications for their league positions.

BT4Y best bet

SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap -0.25

  • Paderborn created 36 attempts in their recent 2-2 draw, showing strong attacking volume.
  • Hamburg concedes an average of three goals per away match, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Paderborn is unbeaten in the last five meetings against Hamburg, winning three times.
  • The Asian Handicap -0.25 offers a safety net if the match ends in a draw, reducing risk.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors SC Paderborn 07 to Win -0.25 due to their high attacking volume and historical control over Hamburg, who struggle defensively away from home. Paderborn's ability to generate numerous chances contrasts with Hamburg's tendency to concede multiple goals on the road, creating a favorable scenario for the hosts. The Asian Handicap -0.25 provides partial protection against a draw, making this a tactically sound and statistically supported selection. No price warning is necessary as the reflect a slight .

Attacking VolumePaderborn averages 14.4 shots per game with 3.6 on target
Strong positive
Away Defensive WeaknessHamburg concedes 2.6 goals per game away
Strong positive
Head-to-Head RecordPaderborn unbeaten in last 5 meetings with Hamburg
Positive
Market Price50.2% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+2.6 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

SC Paderborn 07's home attacking intensity and unbeaten recent record against Hamburg provide a tactical edge in this fixture. Despite Hamburg's improved form, their defensive vulnerabilities on the road and Paderborn's ability to create numerous chances make the Asian Handicap -0.25 a compelling choice. The hosts' offensive pressure is likely to test Hamburg's fragile defense, tipping the balance in Paderborn's favor.

Main risk

That vulnerability has become a recurring concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical matchup

“Paderborn's relentless shot creation paired with Hamburg's away defensive struggles makes the -0.25 handicap a smart tactical play, balancing risk with their solid head-to-head record.”

Key Data Signals

SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap -0.25 evidence

Paderborn created 36 attempts in their recent 2-2 draw, showing strong attacking volume.

Hamburg concedes an average of three goals per away match, indicating defensive weakness.

Paderborn is unbeaten in the last five meetings against Hamburg, winning three times.

The Asian Handicap -0.25 offers a safety net if the match ends in a draw, reducing risk.

What To Watch In The Data

SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap -0.25 notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.6, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring matches.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goal rates are 60% for Paderborn and 80% for Hamburg, suggesting a match likely to feature multiple goals driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SC Paderborn 071
Avg goals scored
Hamburger SV1.2
SC Paderborn 071.8
Avg goals conceded
Hamburger SV2.6
SC Paderborn 0740%
BTTS rate
Hamburger SV40%
SC Paderborn 0760%
Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 86% · edge +0.9 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 36%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have shown tendencies for goals, with Paderborn scoring in 60% of recent matches and Hamburg in 80%. Both teams to score stands at 40% for each, indicating a moderate chance of both sides finding the net. The attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals and BTTS possibilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 51% · edge -5.5 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
SC Paderborn 07 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 50.2% for SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap -0.25 sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+2.6 pts). Despite inconsistency in scoring, their home attacking platform and the Asian Handicap -0.25 safety net make backing Paderborn a logical choice in this contest.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SC Paderborn 07

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
17 Oct 2026A Werder Bremen2-2
10 Oct 2026H VfB Stuttgart0-2
20 Sep 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim3-1
12 Sep 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-3
05 Sep 2026H SC Freiburg0-1

Hamburger SV

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 3L
17 Oct 2026H VfB Stuttgart1-0
10 Oct 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim3-2
19 Sep 2026H 1. FC Köln2-1
13 Sep 2026A RB Leipzig0-5
06 Sep 2026H FSV Mainz 050-5
Market aligned with main pickSC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 51% · edge -5.5 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
SC Paderborn 07 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Paderborn has struggled for consistency, earning 4 points recently with a goal average of 1 per game and conceding 1.8. Hamburg's form is stronger with 9 points, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 2.6 per game. Despite Hamburg's momentum, Paderborn's home attacking volume and unbeaten record against Hamburg provide a counterbalance, suggesting a competitive match where Paderborn can leverage their strengths.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%SC Paderborn 07 Over 2.5
80%Hamburger SV Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.6, indicating a trend toward open, high-scoring matches. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goal rates are 60% for Paderborn and 80% for Hamburg, suggesting a match likely to feature multiple goals driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps.

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