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v
Sassuolo crestSassuolo

Serie A | Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

Como v Sassuolo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 11:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A fixture features Como visiting Sassuolo at the Mapei Stadium, with Como unbeaten in their last seven away league matches and sitting fifth in the table. Sassuolo, placed 11th, have struggled with defensive injuries and inconsistency, losing three of their last six games. Como's tactical approach emphasizes possession control and defensive compactness, aiming to exploit Sassuolo's vulnerabilities in midfield and defense. Key attacking threats like Nico Paz and Tasos Douvikas provide variety, while Sassuolo rely on counter-attacks through Berardi and Laurienté. The match promises a tactical battle with Como expected to control tempo and limit scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Como Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Como unbeaten in last 7 away Serie A matches
  • Como average 61.4% possession vs Sassuolo's 44.8%
  • Como have kept 17 clean sheets this season, Sassuolo only 7
  • Como scored 56 goals this season; Sassuolo conceded 43
  • Recent head-to-head: Como won last meeting 2-0

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Como's strong away form and superior defensive record underpin the model's in a Como win with under 2.5 goals. Their ability to control possession (61.4%) and limit Sassuolo's chances, combined with Sassuolo's defensive fragility and injury issues, supports a low-scoring outcome favoring Como. The model assigns a 27.1% chance to this outcome, significantly higher than the implied 13.3% , indicating positive value. The tactical setup and recent form data align well with this selection, making it a compelling pick.

Como Away Unbeaten Run7 matches
Strong positive
Possession Advantage61.4% vs 44.8%
Strong positive
Defensive Clean Sheets17 vs 7
Strong positive
Sassuolo Defensive InjuriesKey players missing
Positive
Model Value Edge27.1% model chance vs 13.3% implied (+13.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Como's unbeaten away streak and tactical discipline make them the logical choice for victory, especially given Sassuolo's defensive struggles and injury concerns. The visitors' ability to control possession and limit Sassuolo's attacking chances supports a low-scoring game, aligning with the Como Win & Under 2.5 Goals selection.

Main risk

Sassuolo should have moments, but they may spend too much of the night reacting.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and defensive analysis

“Como's structured possession game and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation against a Sassuolo side vulnerable at the back and reliant on counter-attacks. This match is poised for a controlled, low-scoring win for Como.”

Key Data Signals

Como Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Como unbeaten in last 7 away Serie A matches

Como average 61.4% possession vs Sassuolo's 44.8%

Como have kept 17 clean sheets this season, Sassuolo only 7

Como scored 56 goals this season; Sassuolo conceded 43

What To Watch In The Data

Como Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.67, indicating moderately low scoring encounters.
  • Como's recent defensive solidity and tactical approach suggest this trend will continue, with a controlled tempo limiting goal-scoring opportunities.
  • The trend supports the under 2.5 goals angle, as both teams have shown disciplined defensive performances in these meetings.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Como1.8
Avg goals scored
Sassuolo1.8
Como1
Avg goals conceded
Sassuolo2.2
Como60%
BTTS rate
Sassuolo100%
Como60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sassuolo80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Como's defensive record with 17 clean sheets contrasts sharply with Sassuolo's 7, indicating a likely low-scoring match. Sassuolo's 80% over 2.5 goals rate is tempered by Como's ability to control possession and limit chances, suggesting under 2.5 goals is plausible. Both teams to score is less likely given Como's defensive discipline and Sassuolo's struggles to break down organized defenses.

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Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Como v Sassuolocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickComo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 77% · edge +0.7 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Como to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 27.1% for Como Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 13.3% implied by the current price (+13.8 pts). The problem is Sassuolo’s defensive profile.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Como

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
18 Oct 2026A Fiorentina3-1
11 Oct 2026H AS Roma0-0
20 Sep 2026A Frosinone0-2
14 Sep 2026H Parma2-1
04 Sep 2026A Genoa4-1

Sassuolo

LDLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
16 Oct 2026A Frosinone2-4
11 Oct 2026H AC Milan1-1
18 Sep 2026A Monza1-2
13 Sep 2026H Juventus3-2
06 Sep 2026A Bologna2-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -1.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Como Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Como to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Como's recent form shows 10 points from their last six matches with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, reflecting solid performance and defensive resilience. Sassuolo's 5 points in the same period with 1.8 goals scored but 2.2 conceded highlight defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistency. Como's form supports their ability to control matches and maintain leads, reinforcing the bet on a Como win with under 2.5 goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Como Over 2.5
80%Sassuolo Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.67, indicating moderately low scoring encounters. Como's recent defensive solidity and tactical approach suggest this trend will continue, with a controlled tempo limiting goal-scoring opportunities. The trend supports the under 2.5 goals angle, as both teams have shown disciplined defensive performances in these meetings.

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