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Gaziantep FK crestGaziantep FK
v
Erzurumspor FK crestErzurumspor FK

Süper Lig | Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Erzurumspor FK visits Gaziantep FK in a Süper Lig clash where Erzurumspor's recent form and defensive solidity stand out. Erzurumspor has accumulated 10 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, contrasting with Gaziantep's 1.8 goals conceded. Gaziantep's attack has struggled, scoring only 1 goal in recent outings, while Erzurumspor's tactical discipline and counter-attacking threat offer a clear edge. The match promises a tactical battle with Erzurumspor likely to capitalize on Gaziantep's defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent scoring.

BT4Y best bet

Erzurumspor FK to Win

  • Erzurumspor FK has a 70% to win, with positive value at 3.2 .
  • Gaziantep FK concedes 1.8 goals per game, while Erzurumspor FK concedes only 0.6, indicating defensive strength.
  • Erzurumspor FK's recent form yields 10 points versus Gaziantep FK's 4 points in the same period.
  • Gaziantep FK averages 12.8 shots per game but low goal conversion, while Erzurumspor FK is more efficient defensively.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Erzurumspor FK to win due to their superior defensive record and recent form, conceding only 0.6 goals per game compared to Gaziantep FK's 1.8. Erzurumspor's ability to limit opponents' chances combined with Gaziantep's low scoring output supports this pick. The of 3.2 offer positive value given the model's 70% win probability. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation. The balanced shot volumes but contrasting defensive effectiveness underpin the in Erzurumspor FK's victory.

Defensive recordErzurumspor FK concedes 0.6 goals per game vs Gaziantep FK 1.8
Strong positive
Recent form pointsErzurumspor FK 10 points vs Gaziantep FK 4 points
Strong positive
Model win probability70% chance for Erzurumspor FK
Strong positive
Odds value edge46.3% model chance vs 31.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Erzurumspor FK's disciplined defense and recent point accumulation make them the tactical and statistical favorite in this Süper Lig fixture. Gaziantep FK's defensive frailties and low recent scoring output suggest they may struggle to contain Erzurumspor's counter-attacks, supporting the away win selection.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Erzurumspor FK's defensive resilience and efficient recent form create a compelling case for their victory, especially against a Gaziantep side conceding heavily and lacking goal threat.”

Key Data Signals

Erzurumspor FK to Win evidence

Erzurumspor FK has a 70% to win, with positive value at 3.2 .

Gaziantep FK concedes 1.8 goals per game, while Erzurumspor FK concedes only 0.6, indicating defensive strength.

Erzurumspor FK's recent form yields 10 points versus Gaziantep FK's 4 points in the same period.

Gaziantep FK averages 12.8 shots per game but low goal conversion, while Erzurumspor FK is more efficient defensively.

What To Watch In The Data

Erzurumspor FK to Win notes

  • In the last five head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, Erzurumspor FK's recent matches show a trend towards lower goal concessions, suggesting a tactical emphasis on defense that could limit overall goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gaziantep FK1
Avg goals scored
Erzurumspor FK0.8
Gaziantep FK1.8
Avg goals conceded
Erzurumspor FK0.6
Gaziantep FK40%
BTTS rate
Erzurumspor FK0%
Gaziantep FK60%
Over 2.5 goals
Erzurumspor FK20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Goal trends suggest a low-scoring match as Erzurumspor FK has a low BTTS rate of 0%, reflecting defensive solidity, while Gaziantep FK's BTTS rate is 40%. Gaziantep's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Erzurumspor's 20%, indicating potential for limited goals but some risk of openness.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Erzurumspor FK Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 46.3% for Erzurumspor FK to Win sits against roughly 31.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Erzurumspor FK have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Gaziantep FK.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gaziantep FK

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Başakşehir1-2
11 Oct 2026H Çorum FK0-3
19 Sep 2026A Kocaelispor0-2
14 Sep 2026H Fenerbahçe0-0
07 Sep 2026A Göztepe4-2

Erzurumspor FK

WDWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
17 Oct 2026H Eyüpspor2-0
10 Oct 2026A Alanyaspor0-0
20 Sep 2026H Samsunspor1-0
11 Sep 2026A Beşiktaş0-3
05 Sep 2026H Konyaspor1-0
Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Erzurumspor FK Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Erzurumspor FK's recent form is strong with 10 points gained and a tight defense conceding only 0.6 goals per game. Gaziantep FK's form is weaker, with just 4 points and a leaky defense conceding 1.8 goals per game, highlighting Erzurumspor's momentum and defensive edge.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gaziantep FK Over 2.5
20%Erzurumspor FK Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last five head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring. However, Erzurumspor FK's recent matches show a trend towards lower goal concessions, suggesting a tactical emphasis on defense that could limit overall goals in this fixture.

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