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FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05
v
Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen

Bundesliga | Sat 24 Oct, 14:30

FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 12:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen meet in a Bundesliga clash where both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. Mainz ranks 5th with 10 points, while Bremen sits 8th with 9 points, reflecting a competitive mid-table battle. Recent matches highlight high-scoring affairs, with Mainz averaging 2.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, and Bremen netting 2.2 while allowing 1.6. Both sides have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, setting the stage for an open, goal-rich encounter with tactical emphasis on offensive transitions and pressing.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.
  • Mainz averages 17 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, showing strong offensive pressure.
  • Werder Bremen's N. Füllkrug has 6 goals and 2.59 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key scoring threat.
  • The head-to-head average goals over the last 10 meetings is 2.1, indicating a moderately open scoring history.
  • Both teams have relatively high BTTS rates, with Bremen at 100% and Mainz at 60%, supporting goal chances on both ends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a positive value bet with a 50.1% chance against an implied 43.5%, reflecting a 6.6% . Both teams demonstrate aggressive attacking play and defensive openness, with Mainz and Bremen averaging 2.8 and 2.2 goals scored per game respectively, alongside high shot volumes. The 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate for both teams and Bremen's perfect BTTS record reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring match. The model at 57% supports this selection as a well-founded prediction for goal-heavy action.

Model Chance50.1% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+6.6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance50.1% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+6.6 pts)
Positive
Value Edge50.1% model chance vs 43.5% implied (+6.6 pts)
Strong positive
Team Attack StrengthHigh goals per game
Strong positive
BTTS RatesBremen 100%, Mainz 60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen have shown strong offensive capabilities but also defensive frailties. The high shot volumes and goal averages suggest a lively match with multiple scoring chances, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling pick based on tactical openness and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture promises an entertaining clash with both sides pushing forward aggressively. The combination of Mainz's prolific shooting and Bremen's clinical finishing points to a match where goals will flow, rewarding those backing Over 3.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.

Mainz averages 17 shots and 6.4 shots on target per game, showing strong offensive pressure.

Werder Bremen's N. Füllkrug has 6 goals and 2.59 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key scoring threat.

The head-to-head average goals over the last 10 meetings is 2.1, indicating a moderately open scoring history.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold, but recent form and season stats show an upward trend in goals.
  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating a faster tempo and more open play that could push this fixture beyond 3.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FSV Mainz 052.8
Avg goals scored
Werder Bremen2.2
FSV Mainz 052
Avg goals conceded
Werder Bremen1.6
FSV Mainz 0560%
BTTS rate
Werder Bremen100%
FSV Mainz 0580%
Over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 44% · edge +6.6 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have demonstrated strong attacking output with Mainz scoring 2.8 and Bremen 2.2 goals per game. Bremen's 100% BTTS rate and Mainz's 60% suggest both sides frequently concede and score, supporting a scenario with multiple goals. This match is likely to feature open play and goal exchanges, aligning well with Over 3.5 Goals.

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Useful next reads

Bundesliga hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Werder Bremen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Werder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 50.1% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 43.5% implied by the current price (+6.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for FSV Mainz 05 and 80% for Werder Bremen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FSV Mainz 05

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
17 Oct 2026A FC Schalke 041-0
10 Oct 2026H Bayer Leverkusen3-4
19 Sep 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach4-3
12 Sep 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-3
06 Sep 2026A Hamburger SV5-0

Werder Bremen

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
17 Oct 2026H SC Paderborn 072-2
09 Oct 2026A Borussia Dortmund2-2
19 Sep 2026H FC Augsburg3-2
12 Sep 2026A 1. FC Köln1-1
05 Sep 2026H RB Leipzig3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Werder Bremen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Werder Bremen to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have accumulated 9 points recently, with Mainz scoring 2.8 goals per game and Bremen 2.2, reflecting strong offensive form. Their 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches confirms a trend towards high-scoring games, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-laden encounter in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5
80%Werder Bremen Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold, but recent form and season stats show an upward trend in goals. Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating a faster tempo and more open play that could push this fixture beyond 3.5 goals.

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