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Alloa Athletic crestAlloa Athletic
v
Queen of the South crestQueen of the South

League One | Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alloa Athletic and Queen of the South meet in a League One clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring matches recently, with Alloa Athletic boasting an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals and Queen of the South matching that figure. Despite Alloa's mid-table position and Queen of the South's slightly lower rank, their defensive records suggest openness at the back, setting the stage for an open, goal-rich encounter at this pivotal fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.
  • Alloa Athletic concedes an average of 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Queen of the South concedes 4.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive struggles.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings average 2.4 goals per game, supporting a goal-heavy game.
  • Recent form shows both sides scoring but also conceding frequently, favoring Over 2.5 Goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 63.1% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, slightly above the implied market chance, indicating a modest . Both teams have consistently participated in high-scoring games, with Alloa Athletic and Queen of the South each recording an 80% Over 2.5 rate recently. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, particularly Queen of the South's high goals conceded average, suggest an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The stable data quality and balanced recent form reinforce in this goal-focused selection.

Model Chance63.1% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+0.6 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
Defensive RecordsHigh goals conceded by both teams
Positive
H2H Average Goals2.4 goals per game
Positive
Price Edge63.1% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+0.6 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking contest as both Alloa Athletic and Queen of the South have shown defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency for high-scoring games. The data supports Over 2.5 Goals given their recent form and head-to-head averages, suggesting multiple scoring opportunities and an entertaining fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive openness

“Both teams' defensive records and recent scoring patterns point towards a lively game with several goals. The high Over 2.5 rate for both sides underlines the likelihood of a goal-rich encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.

Alloa Athletic concedes an average of 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Queen of the South concedes 4.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive struggles.

The last 10 head-to-head meetings average 2.4 goals per game, supporting a goal-heavy game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, close to the Over 2.5 threshold.
  • Both teams' recent matches show an 80% Over 2.5 rate, indicating a trend towards high-scoring encounters driven by open tempo and defensive gaps, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical trend-based selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alloa Athletic1
Avg goals scored
Queen of the South1.4
Alloa Athletic2
Avg goals conceded
Queen of the South4.4
Alloa Athletic40%
BTTS rate
Queen of the South60%
Alloa Athletic80%
Over 2.5 goals
Queen of the South80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 63% · edge +0.6 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have shown a strong propensity for matches with multiple goals, reflected in their 80% Over 2.5 rates. Queen of the South concedes over four goals per game on average, while Alloa Athletic concedes two, suggesting defensive lapses that increase scoring chances. BTTS rates are moderate, indicating both sides can find the net, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals outlook.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 63% · edge +0.6 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Queen of the South Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Queen of the South to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Alloa Athletic Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The 63.1% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (+0.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Alloa Athletic and 80% for Queen of the South, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more League One analysisplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alloa Athletic

WLLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
17 Oct 2026A East Fife3-0
10 Oct 2026H Hamilton Academical0-3
03 Oct 2026A Ross County1-4
19 Sep 2026H East Kilbride1-2
12 Sep 2026A Airdrie United0-1

Queen of the South

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
17 Oct 2026H Ross County1-7
10 Oct 2026A Peterhead1-0
03 Oct 2026H Cove Rangers4-3
19 Sep 2026A Hamilton Academical1-4
15 Sep 2026A Ross County0-8
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Queen of the South Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Queen of the South to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Alloa Athletic Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Alloa Athletic to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form shows Alloa Athletic with 3 points and Queen of the South with 6 points from their last matches, both scoring around 1 to 1.4 goals per game but conceding frequently. This pattern of scoring and conceding supports an expectation of multiple goals in this fixture, aligning with the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Alloa Athletic Over 2.5
80%Queen of the South Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, close to the Over 2.5 threshold. Both teams' recent matches show an 80% Over 2.5 rate, indicating a trend towards high-scoring encounters driven by open tempo and defensive gaps, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical trend-based selection.

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