Football Stats Hub

Sirius crestSirius
v
AIK Stockholm crestAIK Stockholm

Allsvenskan | Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

Sirius v AIK Stockholm Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 12:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sirius hosts AIK Stockholm in a crucial Allsvenskan clash where Sirius leads the table with strong defensive form, conceding just 0.6 goals per game recently. AIK Stockholm, struggling in 9th place, has a leaky defense allowing 3 goals per match on average. Sirius's tactical discipline and AIK's defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for a cautious encounter, with both sides likely to prioritize defensive solidity over open attacking play. Recent form data suggests a low-scoring game, with Sirius averaging 1.6 goals and AIK 2, but AIK's high goals against rate hints at a challenging match for them.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Sirius concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength.
  • AIK Stockholm allows 3 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Sirius averages 1.6 goals scored, AIK averages 2 goals scored per match.
  • Sirius and AIK have a combined low BTTS rate, supporting fewer goals.
  • Model projects a 45.1% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, with positive value at 2.6 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals due to Sirius's strong defensive record and AIK Stockholm's defensive struggles, which may lead to cautious play and fewer clear chances. Despite AIK's higher goal-scoring average, their defensive weaknesses and Sirius's disciplined backline suggest limited goal opportunities. The offer positive value with a 6.6% edge, reflecting a realistic chance of a low-scoring match. No data limitations affect , making this a solid pick based on defensive solidity and recent form.

Sirius Defensive Solidity0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
AIK Defensive Weakness3 goals conceded per game
Neutral
Recent Goal AveragesSirius 1.6, AIK 2 goals per game
Positive
Model Probability vs Implied45.1% model chance vs 38.5% implied (+6.6 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a prudent selection given Sirius's defensive discipline and AIK Stockholm's recent struggles to contain opponents. The data points to a match where cautious tactics and defensive focus will limit scoring chances, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive tactics and scoring potential

“Sirius's defensive consistency combined with AIK's leaky backline sets a tactical structure favoring a low-scoring game. Expect tight marking and limited clear-cut chances, which aligns well with an Under 2.5 Goals bet.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Sirius concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength.

AIK Stockholm allows 3 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Sirius averages 1.6 goals scored, AIK averages 2 goals scored per match.

Sirius and AIK have a combined low BTTS rate, supporting fewer goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.3, slightly below the 2.5 threshold.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a pattern of competitive but low-scoring encounters, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sirius1.6
Avg goals scored
AIK Stockholm2
Sirius0.6
Avg goals conceded
AIK Stockholm3
Sirius40%
BTTS rate
AIK Stockholm100%
Sirius40%
Over 2.5 goals
AIK Stockholm80%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 39% · edge +6.6 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Goal trends show Sirius averaging 1.6 goals and conceding 0.6, while AIK scores 2 but concedes 3 per match. BTTS rates are moderate to low, especially for Sirius, supporting a scenario with fewer goals and less likelihood of both teams scoring, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals angle.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Sirius to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Sirius Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
AIK Stockholm Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
AIK Stockholm to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
The 45.1% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 38.5% implied by the current price (+6.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Sirius and 80% for AIK Stockholm, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sirius

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
18 Oct 2026H IF Elfsborg2-2
10 Oct 2026A Gais1-0
19 Sep 2026A Orgryte IS2-1
14 Sep 2026H Degerfors IF2-0
05 Sep 2026A Vasteras SK FK1-0

AIK Stockholm

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
17 Oct 2026H IFK Goteborg2-2
10 Oct 2026H IF Brommapojkarna5-6
20 Sep 2026A Halmstad1-2
16 Sep 2026H Mjallby AIF1-1
12 Sep 2026H Vasteras SK FK1-4
Best odds for this sectionSirius to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Sirius Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
AIK Stockholm Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
AIK Stockholm to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Sirius's recent form shows strong defensive output with only 0.6 goals conceded per game and a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals matches, indicating a tendency towards tighter games. AIK's form is less stable, conceding 3 goals per game and featuring an 80% Over 2.5 rate, but their defensive frailty may lead to cautious tactics in this away fixture, supporting Under 2.5 Goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sirius Over 2.5
80%AIK Stockholm Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.3, slightly below the 2.5 threshold. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a pattern of competitive but low-scoring encounters, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…