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ST Mirren crestST Mirren
v
Dundee crestDundee

Premiership | Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

ST Mirren v Dundee Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Scottish Premiership fixture between ST Mirren and Dundee carries significant emotional weight despite neither side being able to alter their final league positions. ST Mirren approach the match with renewed defensive following a 2-0 win over Aberdeen, aiming to build momentum ahead of the relegation playoffs. Dundee arrive on a troubling goal drought, having failed to score in their last three league matches, which raises questions about their attacking threat. The tactical battle is expected to be tight and cautious, with midfield intensity likely to dictate the flow and outcome of this emotionally charged contest.

BT4Y lean · price warning

BTTS No

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 42%, above the 28% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • ST Mirren have seen one side fail to score in five of their last six matches, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Dundee have failed to score in their last three league games, struggling to convert chances.
  • Recent matches involving ST Mirren have been low-scoring and tense, fitting a BTTS No profile.
  • Dundee’s attacking bluntness contrasts with ST Mirren’s improved defensive control, especially after limiting Aberdeen to one shot on target.
Price warning

BTTS No is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 42% while the model sits nearer 28% (-14 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Dundee Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The BTTS No pick reflects ST Mirren’s recent defensive resilience and Dundee’s ongoing scoring difficulties. Five of ST Mirren’s last six matches have ended with at least one team failing to score, while Dundee have gone 270 minutes without a goal despite creating chances. This suggests a low-scoring encounter where defensive compactness and finishing struggles will be decisive. However, the current are short compared to the model’s 28% chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection. Reduced staking or waiting for better is advised until further team news or line-up clarity emerges.

ST Mirren Defensive PatternFive of last six matches with one side failing to score
Strong positive
Dundee Scoring DroughtThree consecutive matches without a goal
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Implied Odds28% model chance vs 42% implied (-14 pts)
Negative
Recent Defensive ControlAberdeen limited to one shot on target by ST Mirren
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The BTTS No selection aligns with ST Mirren’s recent defensive improvements and Dundee’s lack of goals. ST Mirren’s ability to limit opponents’ chances combined with Dundee’s finishing issues suggests a match where at least one side will fail to score. This tactical and form-based reasoning supports a cautious, low-scoring outcome.

Main risk

United are not collapsing, but they are stalling, and there is a difference.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive control and attacking bluntness

“ST Mirren’s defensive solidity and Dundee’s scoring struggles set the stage for a low-scoring match where defensive discipline will be key. The midfield battle and finishing inefficiency are likely to keep the scoreline tight.”

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

ST Mirren have seen one side fail to score in five of their last six matches, indicating defensive solidity.

Dundee have failed to score in their last three league games, struggling to convert chances.

Recent matches involving ST Mirren have been low-scoring and tense, fitting a BTTS No profile.

Dundee’s attacking bluntness contrasts with ST Mirren’s improved defensive control, especially after limiting Aberdeen to one shot on target.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, recent matches have shown a trend toward tighter, lower-scoring affairs, with five of ST Mirren’s last six games featuring one side failing to score.
  • This trend suggests a slower tempo and defensive focus likely to continue in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ST Mirren0.4
Avg goals scored
Dundee1.6
ST Mirren2.8
Avg goals conceded
Dundee1.4
ST Mirren40%
BTTS rate
Dundee100%
ST Mirren80%
Over 2.5 goals
Dundee80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 42% · edge -14 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
ST Mirren’s recent matches have predominantly featured one side failing to score, with five of six games ending BTTS No. Dundee’s three-match goal drought compounds the likelihood of a low-scoring game. The defensive compactness shown by ST Mirren, especially in limiting Aberdeen to a single shot on target, supports the expectation of a cautious match with limited goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDundee Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Dundee to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
ST Mirren Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 28% for BTTS No sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (-14 pts). ST Mirren show a 40% BTTS rate and Dundee show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. 🎯 Pick 1: Both Teams To Score - No

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Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ST Mirren

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 5L
17 Oct 2026A Aberdeen1-3
10 Oct 2026A Heart Of Midlothian0-5
19 Sep 2026H Dundee Utd0-3
09 Sep 2026A Rangers0-1
05 Sep 2026H Celtic1-2

Dundee

DWWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
17 Oct 2026H Rangers2-2
10 Oct 2026A Falkirk2-1
19 Sep 2026H Motherwell2-1
06 Sep 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-2
02 Sep 2026H ST Johnstone1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Dundee Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Dundee to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
ST Mirren Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
ST Mirren to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form data shows ST Mirren scoring only 0.4 goals per game while conceding 2.8, reflecting defensive struggles earlier but recent improvement. Dundee average 1.6 goals for and 1.4 against, but their current three-game scoring drought highlights offensive issues. Both teams have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently, which contrasts with the BTTS No pick, indicating this match may deviate due to tactical caution and playoff pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%ST Mirren Over 2.5
80%Dundee Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring. However, recent matches have shown a trend toward tighter, lower-scoring affairs, with five of ST Mirren’s last six games featuring one side failing to score. This trend suggests a slower tempo and defensive focus likely to continue in this fixture.

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