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Grimsby crestGrimsby

League Two | Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

Gillingham v Grimsby Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 11:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gillingham hosts Grimsby in this League Two clash, with Gillingham positioned 7th and Grimsby 17th in the table. Gillingham's recent form shows more promise, having secured 5 points in their last matches compared to Grimsby's single point. Both teams have similar tendencies for over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 60%, suggesting an open game. Gillingham's slightly stronger attack and home advantage set the stage for a competitive encounter, though Grimsby’s defensive resilience could pose challenges.

BT4Y best bet

Gillingham to Win

  • Gillingham ranks 7th with 17 points, Grimsby 17th with 14 points.
  • Gillingham averages 1.2 goals per game; Grimsby 0.8, indicating stronger attack.
  • Both teams have 60% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates, hinting at open play.
  • Gillingham’s shot volume is lower but more focused with 1.6 shots on target per game.
  • Grimsby averages more shots and corners but concedes slightly more goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gillingham to win with a 63.8% chance, reflecting their superior league position and recent form. Despite Grimsby's higher shot volume, Gillingham's defensive solidity and efficient finishing underpin this . The at 3.1 offer significant value given the implied chance of 32.3%. The model notes balanced goal trends but trusts Gillingham's home advantage and attacking threats, particularly from key players like S. Kendall, to secure victory.

League PositionGillingham 7th vs Grimsby 17th
Positive
Recent Form PointsGillingham 5 vs Grimsby 1
Strong positive
Goal Scoring RateGillingham 1.2 vs Grimsby 0.8 per game
Positive
Shot VolumeGrimsby higher shots but lower efficiency
Neutral
Odds Value Edge47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gillingham's stronger recent form and higher league standing make them the tactical favorite to win this match. Their ability to convert chances efficiently, combined with home advantage, provides a solid foundation for victory. Grimsby's defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring rate further support backing Gillingham to secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Gillingham's blend of disciplined defense and key attacking players like S. Kendall gives them a clear edge over Grimsby, whose higher shot volume hasn't translated into goals. This match should favor the home side's tactical cohesion and finishing quality.”

Key Data Signals

Gillingham to Win evidence

Gillingham ranks 7th with 17 points, Grimsby 17th with 14 points.

Gillingham averages 1.2 goals per game; Grimsby 0.8, indicating stronger attack.

Both teams have 60% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates, hinting at open play.

Gillingham’s shot volume is lower but more focused with 1.6 shots on target per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Gillingham to Win notes

  • The last eight meetings average 2.25 goals per game, aligning with both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • This trend suggests a moderately high-scoring fixture, driven by open play and attacking intent from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gillingham1.2
Avg goals scored
Grimsby0.8
Gillingham1.6
Avg goals conceded
Grimsby1.8
Gillingham60%
BTTS rate
Grimsby60%
Gillingham60%
Over 2.5 goals
Grimsby60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 60% rate for over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating an open game with scoring opportunities at both ends. Gillingham's higher goals per game and Grimsby's tendency to concede suggest this fixture could see multiple goals and both teams finding the net.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 47.3% for Gillingham to Win sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gillingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Grimsby.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gillingham

DLWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
20 Oct 2026H Port Vale1-1
17 Oct 2026A Accrington ST1-3
10 Oct 2026A Rotherham4-1
03 Oct 2026H Newport County0-0
26 Sep 2026A York0-3

Grimsby

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
20 Oct 2026A Rochdale2-2
17 Oct 2026H Northampton0-2
10 Oct 2026A Port Vale0-1
03 Oct 2026H Shrewsbury1-2
26 Sep 2026A Newport County1-2
Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Gillingham's recent 5 points haul contrasts with Grimsby's single point, reflecting better momentum and . Gillingham's ability to score and defend more effectively in recent matches supports their favored status, while Grimsby's struggles hint at challenges maintaining consistency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gillingham Over 2.5
60%Grimsby Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
The last eight meetings average 2.25 goals per game, aligning with both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season. This trend suggests a moderately high-scoring fixture, driven by open play and attacking intent from both sides.

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