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Solihull Moors crestSolihull Moors
v
Carlisle crestCarlisle

National League | Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

Solihull Moors v Carlisle Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Solihull Moors face Carlisle in a National League clash where both teams have shown contrasting recent form and defensive records. Solihull Moors have struggled defensively, conceding over three goals per game recently, while Carlisle have been more solid at the back. Carlisle's better recent points tally and mid-table standing contrast with Solihull's lower league position and defensive frailties. This match presents a tactical battle where Solihull Moors will seek to capitalize on home advantage and avoid defeat, making the Draw No Bet market an intriguing option given the uncertainty and stakes involved.

BT4Y best bet

Solihull Moors Draw No Bet

  • Solihull Moors have conceded an average of 3.2 goals recently, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Carlisle have a stronger recent points haul with 7 points compared to Solihull's 3.
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting moderate goal-scoring from both sides.
  • Solihull Moors have an 80% rate of matches going Over 2.5 goals, indicating open games.
  • The Draw No Bet market offers a 3.1 price with a positive of 12.7%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Solihull Moors Draw No Bet due to the combination of Solihull's home advantage and the defensive inconsistencies of both teams, which increase the likelihood of goals and an open game. The 3.1 imply a 32.3% chance, while the model estimates a 45% chance, indicating good value. Despite Solihull's low recent points, their high Over 2.5 goals rate and Carlisle's moderate scoring support the bet. No data limitations or price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance45% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+12.7 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance45% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+12.7 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge45% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+12.7 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormSolihull concedes 3.2 goals per game
Neutral
BTTS RateBoth teams 40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Draw No Bet on Solihull Moors is appealing due to their home advantage and Carlisle's inconsistent attack. Solihull's defensive struggles suggest an open game, but the home side's motivation to avoid defeat and the value in the make this a sensible tactical and data-backed choice.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · market value and tactical balance

“Solihull Moors' home resilience combined with Carlisle's moderate scoring creates a compelling case for the Draw No Bet market, balancing risk and value effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Solihull Moors Draw No Bet evidence

Solihull Moors have conceded an average of 3.2 goals recently, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Carlisle have a stronger recent points haul with 7 points compared to Solihull's 3.

Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting moderate goal-scoring from both sides.

Solihull Moors have an 80% rate of matches going Over 2.5 goals, indicating open games.

What To Watch In The Data

Solihull Moors Draw No Bet notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 4, indicating a tendency for high-scoring encounters.
  • Solihull Moors' recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing the expectation of an open, attacking game with multiple goal opportunities and a fast tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Solihull Moors1
Avg goals scored
Carlisle1.4
Solihull Moors3.2
Avg goals conceded
Carlisle1.4
Solihull Moors40%
BTTS rate
Carlisle40%
Solihull Moors80%
Over 2.5 goals
Carlisle40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 83% vs implied 89% · edge -5.9 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating moderate likelihood of both sides scoring. Solihull Moors' matches have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting open and high-scoring games, while Carlisle's 40% rate is more conservative. This mix points to a game with goal opportunities but not necessarily both teams scoring consistently.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSolihull Moors Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 32% · edge +12.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Solihull Moors to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 45% for Solihull Moors Draw No Bet sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+12.7 pts). Carlisle have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Solihull Moors.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Solihull Moors

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
10 Oct 2026A Worthing0-5
03 Oct 2026H FC Halifax Town0-2
29 Sep 2026A Woking4-2
26 Sep 2026H Boreham Wood0-3
18 Sep 2026A Yeovil Town1-4

Carlisle

DWWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Kidderminster Harriers0-0
03 Oct 2026A Aldershot Town3-1
29 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-0
26 Sep 2026H Woking2-5
19 Sep 2026A Eastleigh0-1
Market aligned with main pickSolihull Moors Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 32% · edge +12.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Solihull Moors to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Recent form shows Carlisle with 7 points and a better defensive record conceding 1.4 goals per game, compared to Solihull Moors' 3 points and 3.2 goals conceded. This contrast highlights Carlisle's relative stability, but Solihull's home advantage and attacking openness keep the outcome uncertain, supporting the Draw No Bet stance.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Solihull Moors Over 2.5
40%Carlisle Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 4, indicating a tendency for high-scoring encounters. Solihull Moors' recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing the expectation of an open, attacking game with multiple goal opportunities and a fast tempo.

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