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Boreham Wood crestBoreham Wood
v
AFC Fylde crestAFC Fylde

National League | Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Boreham Wood hosts AFC Fylde in a National League clash where defensive solidity and cautious tactics are expected to shape the contest. Boreham Wood leads the table and has conceded just 0.6 goals per game recently, while AFC Fylde, sitting seventh, has struggled offensively with only one goal in recent matches. Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring games, suggesting a tactical battle focused on control and minimizing risks rather than open attacking play. This match is likely to be tight with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Boreham Wood concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defense.
  • AFC Fylde has scored just 1 goal recently, showing offensive struggles.
  • Boreham Wood’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is high but recent form favors defensive control.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.88, slightly below three goals per game.
  • Boreham Wood leads the league, suggesting a cautious approach to maintain top spot.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as a value bet with a 39.5% chance against an implied market chance of 29.4%, reflecting a 10.1% . Boreham Wood’s strong defensive record and AFC Fylde’s limited scoring output support a low-scoring outcome. Despite Boreham Wood’s historically higher Over 2.5 rate, recent form and league position suggest a more controlled match. No data limitations affect , making this a solid pick with standard staking advised.

Boreham Wood Defensive Strength0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
AFC Fylde Offensive Weakness1 goal scored recently
Positive
Model Value Edge39.5% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+10.1 pts)
Strong positive
H2H Goals Average2.88 goals per match
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given Boreham Wood’s defensive discipline and AFC Fylde’s limited attacking threat. The match context points to a tactical, low-tempo game where both sides prioritize defensive organization. The data supports a cautious approach with fewer goal-scoring chances, making the Under 2.5 Goals bet a logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive control and low scoring

“This fixture’s defensive profiles and recent scoring trends strongly indicate a low-scoring match, with Boreham Wood’s league-leading defense and AFC Fylde’s offensive struggles shaping the game’s tempo.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Boreham Wood concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defense.

AFC Fylde has scored just 1 goal recently, showing offensive struggles.

H2H average goals stand at 2.88, slightly below three goals per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last eight meetings between these teams have averaged 2.88 goals per game, slightly below three goals, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • This trend, combined with recent defensive form, suggests Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals bet.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Boreham Wood3
Avg goals scored
AFC Fylde1
Boreham Wood0.6
Avg goals conceded
AFC Fylde1.4
Boreham Wood60%
BTTS rate
AFC Fylde40%
Boreham Wood80%
Over 2.5 goals
AFC Fylde40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 29% · edge +10.1 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown a tendency for low goal output, with Boreham Wood conceding just 0.6 goals per game and AFC Fylde scoring only once recently. The BTTS No angle aligns with these defensive trends, indicating a controlled match with limited scoring chances for either side.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAFC Fylde Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
Boreham Wood to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Boreham Wood Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The 39.5% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 29.4% implied by the current price (+10.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Boreham Wood and 40% for AFC Fylde, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Boreham Wood

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 1D 0L
09 Oct 2026A Sutton Utd2-0
03 Oct 2026H Altrincham3-1
29 Sep 2026H Kidderminster Harriers3-1
26 Sep 2026A Solihull Moors3-0
19 Sep 2026H Harrogate Town4-1

AFC Fylde

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
10 Oct 2026H Scunthorpe2-0
03 Oct 2026A Southend1-3
29 Sep 2026H Carlisle0-2
26 Sep 2026A Boston United1-0
19 Sep 2026H Altrincham1-2
Best odds for this sectionAFC Fylde Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
Boreham Wood to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Boreham Wood Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Recent form strongly favors Under 2.5 Goals, with Boreham Wood scoring only 3 goals and conceding 0.6 per game, and AFC Fylde scoring just once while conceding 1.4. This trend towards low-scoring matches supports a cautious, defense-first approach in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Boreham Wood Over 2.5
40%AFC Fylde Over 2.5
2.88H2H avg goals
The last eight meetings between these teams have averaged 2.88 goals per game, slightly below three goals, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. This trend, combined with recent defensive form, suggests Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals bet.

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