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Alianza Atletico crestAlianza Atletico

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Fri 29 May, 01:30

Tigre v Alianza Atletico Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 12:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tigre face Alianza Atletico in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Fri 29 May, 01:30. Alianza Atletico have failed to score in three consecutive group stage fixtures, pointing to a very low-scoring, cagey encounter in Buenos Aires. Tigre concede just 0.50 goals per game at home while Alianza Atletico have failed to score in three consecutive continental games.

BT4Y best bet

Draw

  • At 9/2, Draw implies roughly 18%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 22%.
  • Tigre are highly conservative and concede just 0.50 goals on average at home.
  • Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Alianza Atletico.
  • Tigre have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 22% for Draw sits against roughly 18% implied by the current price. Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Alianza Atletico. Tigre are highly conservative and concede just that scoring level on average at home.

Model chance vs price22% model chance against roughly 18% implied
Neutral
Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Tigre have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Tigre are highly conservative and concede just 0.50 goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because tigre are highly conservative and concede just that scoring level on average at home. Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Alianza Atletico. That might sound harsh for a side still fighting to qualify, but football supporters are not famous for patience.

Main risk

That might sound harsh for a side still fighting to qualify, but football supporters are not famous for patience.

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Tigre are highly conservative and concede just that scoring level on average at home.

Tigre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Alianza Atletico.

Tigre have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Tigre1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Alianza Atletico0.4
    Tigre1
    Avg goals conceded
    Alianza Atletico1.4
    Tigre60%
    BTTS rate
    Alianza Atletico40%
    Tigre20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Alianza Atletico20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 23% · edge +40.2 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Tigre

    DDWLD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 1L
    20 May 2026A America de Cali1-1
    07 May 2026A Macara2-2
    01 May 2026H America de Cali2-0
    16 Apr 2026H Macara0-1
    08 Apr 2026A Alianza Atletico1-1

    Alianza Atletico

    DLLLD
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 3L
    22 May 2026A Macara0-0
    07 May 2026H America de Cali0-2
    01 May 2026H Macara0-2
    16 Apr 2026A America de Cali1-2
    08 Apr 2026H Tigre1-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 22% vs implied 19% · edge +3.3 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Alianza Atletico Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
    6.8
    Check odds @ 6.8
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
    3.65
    Check odds @ 3.65
    Alianza Atletico to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
    12
    Check odds @ 12
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.03
    Check odds @ 1.03
    Tigre to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.27
    Check odds @ 1.27
    Tigre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Tigre962313
    4Alianza Atletico26024-7
    CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 22% vs implied 19% · edge +3.3 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Alianza Atletico Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
    6.8
    Check odds @ 6.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Alianza Atletico to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
    12
    Check odds @ 12
    Tigre to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.27
    Check odds @ 1.27
    Tigre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Draw is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Tigre4
    Avg corners for
    Alianza Atletico3.8
    Tigre8.4
    Avg total corners
    Alianza Atletico9.4
    Tigre3
    Avg yellow cards
    Alianza Atletico2.4
    Tigre11
    Avg shots
    Alianza Atletico12.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Tigre wins
    1Draws
    0Alianza Atletico wins
    08 Apr 2026Alianza Atletico v Tigre1-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 22% vs implied 19% · edge +3.3 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Alianza Atletico to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
    12
    Check odds @ 12
    Tigre to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.27
    Check odds @ 1.27
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Draw, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Sudamericana

    Tigre6
    Played
    Alianza Atletico7
    Tigre1.3
    Avg goals for
    Alianza Atletico0.6
    Tigre0.8
    Avg goals against
    Alianza Atletico1.3
    Tigre2
    Clean sheets
    Alianza Atletico2
    Best odds for this sectionAlianza Atletico Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 15% · edge +27.3 pts
    6.8
    Check odds @ 6.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Alianza Atletico to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
    12
    Check odds @ 12
    Tigre to WinBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.27
    Check odds @ 1.27
    Tigre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Season data supports Alianza Atletico Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Tigre Over 2.5
    20%Alianza Atletico Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Tigre sit at 20% and Alianza Atletico sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Tigre v Alianza Atletico prediction

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