Dundalk

Derry City

Premier Division | Fri 29 May, 19:45

Dundalk v Derry City Stats

Data last updated: Fri 31 Jul 2026, 16:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundalk face Derry City in Premier Division on Fri 29 May, 19:45. Derry City are specialists at slowing down matches, drawing seven of their last ten league fixtures. Derry City are unbeaten in their last 10 meetings with Dundalk, with six of those games ending level. A tight tactical draw looks highly probable here.

BT4Y best bet

Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks

At 11/2, Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks implies roughly 15%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
This emphasis on maintaining structural integrity prevents games from breaking open into high-scoring affairs.
The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Dundalk and 20% for Derry City, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Dundalk are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Derry City at 0.6.
BTTS rates of 80% for Dundalk and 40% for Derry City show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 30% for Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks sits against roughly 15% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Dundalk and 20% for Derry City, so the goals angle is not just a price call. This emphasis on maintaining structural integrity prevents games from breaking open into high-scoring affairs.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 15% implied

Strong positive

The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Dundalk and 20%.Visible data support

Positive

Dundalk are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support

Positive

This emphasis on maintaining structural integrity prevents games.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because the under 2.5 goals line has landed in four of Derry’s last five matches and in seven of their last ten overall. Dundalk are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Derry City at 0.6. Dundalk’s season has not been smooth, but there is still something admirably aggressive about the way they play.

Main risk

Dundalk’s season has not been smooth, but there is still something admirably aggressive about the way they play.

Key Data Signals

Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks evidence

The under 2.5 goals line has landed in four of Derry’s last five matches and in seven of.

Dundalk are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Derry City at 0.6.

BTTS rates of 80% for Dundalk and 40% for Derry City show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks notes

The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Dundalk1.4

Avg goals scored

Derry City0.6

Dundalk1.8

Avg goals conceded

Derry City0.8

Dundalk80%

BTTS rate

Derry City40%

Dundalk60%

Over 2.5 goals

Derry City20%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 50% · edge +5.8 pts

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%

1.67

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 3

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Dundalk and 20% for Derry City, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts

1.67

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Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.92

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Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%

2.25

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Derry City to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%

Check odds @ 3

Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

1.8

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Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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Useful next reads

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Dundalk5

Avg corners for

Derry City6.6

Dundalk10

Avg total corners

Derry City9.4

Dundalk3

Avg yellow cards

Derry City3.6

Dundalk13.8

Avg shots

Derry City12.2

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge +0.2 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Dundalk

DWLDL

Last 51W 2D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 3D 3L

22 May 2026A Drogheda United1-1

15 May 2026H Shamrock Rovers1-0

08 May 2026H Bohemians1-3

04 May 2026A Waterford3-3

01 May 2026H Shelbourne1-2

Derry City

DDDLD

Last 50W 4D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 7D 1L

25 May 2026H Shelbourne0-0

22 May 2026H St Patrick's Athl.0-0

15 May 2026A Waterford2-2

08 May 2026A Drogheda United0-1

04 May 2026H Galway United1-1

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 77% · edge -0.3 pts

1.3

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Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.92

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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 64%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Derry City to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%

Check odds @ 3

Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Dundalk wins

6Draws

4Derry City wins

10 Apr 2026Dundalk v Derry City2-2

13 Feb 2026Derry City v Dundalk2-2

18 Oct 2024Dundalk v Derry City0-2

09 Aug 2024Derry City v Dundalk1-1

31 May 2024Dundalk v Derry City0-0

05 Apr 2024Derry City v Dundalk4-1

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

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Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%

2.25

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Derry City to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%

Check odds @ 3

Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier Division

Dundalk25

Played

Derry City25

Dundalk1.6

Avg goals for

Derry City1.3

Dundalk1.5

Avg goals against

Derry City1.2

Dundalk5

Clean sheets

Derry City6

Best odds for this sectionDundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +6 pts

1.92

Check odds @ 1.92

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Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Derry City to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%

Check odds @ 3

Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%

1.88

Check odds @ 1.88

Season data supports Dundalk Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
4	Dundalk	36	25	9	9	7	2
6	Derry City	29	25	6	11	8	1

Dundalk sit in position 4, while Derry City sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Dundalk Over 2.5

20%Derry City Over 2.5

2.8H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Dundalk sit at 60% and Derry City sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Dundalk v Derry City Stats

Match Report

Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Dundalk

Derry City

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Football Stats Hub

Dundalk v Derry City Stats

Match Report

Rationale: The Draw (5/2) Derry City have established a consistent pattern of neutralizing matches through patient, low-risk possession blocks

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Dundalk

Derry City

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