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Tamworth crestTamworth
v
Sutton Utd crestSutton Utd

National League | Wed 30 Sep, 19:45

Tamworth v Sutton Utd Stats

Data last updated: Tue 29 Sep 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tamworth and Sutton Utd meet in a National League clash where both sides have shown tendencies toward open games. Tamworth, positioned lower in the table, have conceded heavily but also participate in high-scoring matches, while Sutton Utd, sitting comfortably in mid-table, have a more balanced defensive record. Recent fixtures suggest a lively encounter with attacking intent from both teams, setting the stage for a match likely to produce multiple goals and dynamic play across the 90 minutes.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Tamworth have a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Sutton Utd have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, supporting the likelihood of goals in this fixture.
  • Both teams show a strong BTTS trend, with Tamworth at 100% and Sutton Utd at 60%, suggesting both sides score regularly.
  • The last five head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals, reinforcing the potential for multiple goals.
  • Tamworth’s defensive vulnerability combined with Sutton Utd’s attacking consistency points to an open game with scoring opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 70.1% chance for over 2.5 goals, well above the implied market chance of 58.8%, highlighting clear value in this selection. Tamworth’s recent matches have consistently featured high goal totals, while Sutton Utd’s moderate over 2.5 rate complements this trend. The attacking patterns and defensive records of both teams suggest an open match with multiple scoring chances. No data limitations affect , making this a strong statistical and tactical case for over 2.5 goals.

Tamworth Over 2.5 Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Sutton Utd Over 2.5 Rate60% recent matches
Positive
Model Probability70.1% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+11.3 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance70.1% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+11.3 pts)
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals Average2.4 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Tamworth’s defensive frailties meet Sutton Utd’s consistent offensive threat. The statistical trends and recent form data both point toward a match with multiple goals, making over 2.5 goals a tactically and data-supported selection for this National League fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Tamworth’s vulnerability at the back combined with Sutton Utd’s attacking balance creates a fertile environment for goals. This matchup’s recent trends strongly favor a lively, high-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Tamworth have a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Sutton Utd have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, supporting the likelihood of goals in this fixture.

Both teams show a strong BTTS trend, with Tamworth at 100% and Sutton Utd at 60%, suggesting both sides score regularly.

The last five head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals, reinforcing the potential for multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last five matches involving these teams show a strong trend toward over 2.5 goals, with an average of 2.4 goals per game in their head-to-head meetings.
  • This trend indicates a tempo and openness conducive to multiple scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Tamworth1.4
Avg goals scored
Sutton Utd1.2
Tamworth2.8
Avg goals conceded
Sutton Utd2
Tamworth100%
BTTS rate
Sutton Utd60%
Tamworth100%
Over 2.5 goals
Sutton Utd60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.3 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have shown a strong propensity for goals and both teams to score, with Tamworth at 100% BTTS and Sutton Utd at 60%. This suggests an open game where both sides find the net, increasing the likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals through combined attacking efforts.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.3 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Sutton Utd Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Sutton Utd to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Tamworth to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 70.1% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+11.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Tamworth and 60% for Sutton Utd, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Tamworth

LWLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
26 Sep 2026A Aldershot Town1-5
19 Sep 2026H Wealdstone2-1
15 Sep 2026A Southend1-3
12 Sep 2026A Harrogate Town1-3
05 Sep 2026H Boston United2-2

Sutton Utd

DDWLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
26 Sep 2026H Forest Green3-3
19 Sep 2026A FC Halifax Town1-1
15 Sep 2026H Eastleigh2-1
12 Sep 2026H Scunthorpe0-2
05 Sep 2026A Barrow0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +13.9 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Sutton Utd Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Sutton Utd to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Tamworth to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Tamworth’s recent form shows a perfect record of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting their open defensive style. Sutton Utd’s form supports this with a 60% over 2.5 rate, indicating a tendency toward matches with multiple goals. Together, recent form data underscores the likelihood of a high-scoring fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Tamworth Over 2.5
60%Sutton Utd Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The last five matches involving these teams show a strong trend toward over 2.5 goals, with an average of 2.4 goals per game in their head-to-head meetings. This trend indicates a tempo and openness conducive to multiple scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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