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England crestEngland
v
Croatia crestCroatia

World Cup | Wed 17 Jun, 21:00

England v Croatia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 08 Jul 2026, 21:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

England face Croatia in World Cup on Wed 17 Jun, 21:00. Tuchel's England are structured to completely eliminate central transitional opportunities, conceding just 0.33 goals per match over their latest six-fixture stretch.

BT4Y best bet

Ly than England across that spell, averaging 1

  • At 11/5, England Win implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
  • Dominik Livakovic is expected in goal, with Josip Stanisic, Marin Pongracic, Martin Erlic and Gvardiol forming the defensive line.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 43% for England Win sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Dominik Livakovic is expected in goal, with Josip Stanisic, Marin Pongracic, Martin Erlic and Gvardiol forming the defensive line.

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Positive
Dominik Livakovic is expected in goal, with Josip Stanisic.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +11.7 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: England Win is the preferred angle because dominik Livakovic is expected in goal, with Josip Stanisic, Marin Pongracic, Martin Erlic and Gvardiol forming the defensive line. That is not sexy football, perhaps, but clean sheets are football’s version of brushing your teeth: boring until you realise how much trouble they prevent.

Main risk

That is not sexy football, perhaps, but clean sheets are football’s version of brushing your teeth: boring until you realise how much trouble they prevent.

Key Data Signals

England Win evidence

Dominik Livakovic is expected in goal, with Josip Stanisic, Marin Pongracic, Martin Erlic and Gvardiol forming the defensive.

What To Watch In The Data

England Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickEngland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 58% · edge -14.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    England Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    England to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    England-
    Avg goals scored
    Croatia-
    England-
    Avg goals conceded
    Croatia-
    England-
    BTTS rate
    Croatia-
    England-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Croatia-
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge -0.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    England

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for England yet.

    Croatia

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Croatia yet.

    Market aligned with main pickEngland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 58% · edge -14.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    England Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2England wins
    1Draws
    1Croatia wins
    13 Jun 2021England v Croatia1-0
    18 Nov 2018England v Croatia2-1
    12 Oct 2018Croatia v England0-0
    11 Jul 2018Croatia v England2-1
    Market aligned with main pickEngland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 58% · edge -14.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for England to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    England5
    Played
    Croatia4
    England2.2
    Avg goals for
    Croatia1.5
    England1
    Avg goals against
    Croatia1.8
    England2
    Clean sheets
    Croatia1
    Market aligned with main pickEngland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 58% · edge -14.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    England Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Season data supports England to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1England732104
    2Croatia632010
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -England Over 2.5
    -Croatia Over 2.5
    1.75H2H avg goals
    Dominik Livakovic is expected in goal, with Josip Stanisic, Marin Pongracic, Martin Erlic and Gvardiol forming the defensive line.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    England v Croatia prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre