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UEFA Nations League | Thu 12 Nov, 19:45

England v Croatia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 09:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

England face Croatia in a crucial UEFA Nations League clash in Rijeka, where both teams bring contrasting recent narratives. England arrives with strong away momentum, having won four consecutive Nations League away matches and showing improved defensive discipline after a 2-0 victory over Czechia. Croatia, unbeaten in nine competitive home fixtures, boasts consistent scoring but defensive vulnerabilities exposed by a recent 4-1 loss to Spain. The tactical battle will hinge on England's attacking consistency led by Harry Kane and Croatia's resilience at home, with key defensive absences potentially tipping the balance in this tightly poised encounter.

BT4Y best bet

England

  • England have won four successive Nations League away matches, showing strong away form.
  • Harry Kane has scored in five consecutive matches, driving England's attack.
  • Croatia have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, indicating defensive fragility.
  • Croatia remain unbeaten in nine competitive home games, winning eight, showing home resilience.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates England's chances at 43.6%, significantly higher than the implied 28.6% , indicating strong value. England's consistent two-goal scoring pattern, led by Kane's prolific form, aligns with Croatia's defensive struggles, especially with key absences weakening their backline. Despite Croatia's unbeaten home record, England's momentum and attacking efficiency provide a compelling case for an away win. The model at 56% reflects a balanced but positive outlook, supported by recent form and player-level data.

England's recent away form4 consecutive away wins in Nations League
Strong positive
Harry Kane's scoring streak5 consecutive matches with goals
Strong positive
Croatia's defensive recordConceded in 11 of last 12 internationals
Negative
Croatia's home unbeaten streak9 competitive matches unbeaten
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

England's tactical discipline and attacking consistency, spearheaded by Harry Kane, provide a solid foundation for victory despite Croatia's formidable home record. The data supports England's ability to exploit Croatia's defensive vulnerabilities, making an away win a credible outcome in this tightly matched contest.

Main risk

England therefore face a side whose broader defensive numbers look vulnerable but whose home results demand considerably more respect.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · England's tactical and form advantage

“England's blend of attacking momentum and improved defensive focus positions them well to overcome Croatia's resilient home form, especially with key Croatian defensive absences.”

Key Data Signals

England evidence

England have won four successive Nations League away matches, showing strong away form.

Harry Kane has scored in five consecutive matches, driving England's attack.

Croatia have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, indicating defensive fragility.

Croatia remain unbeaten in nine competitive home games, winning eight, showing home resilience.

What To Watch In The Data

England notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.33, indicating a tendency for open, attacking encounters.
  • Both teams' recent matches show high over 2.5 goals rates (England 75%, Croatia 100%), suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and a lively tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

England3.5
Avg goals scored
Croatia1
England0.75
Avg goals conceded
Croatia3.5
England25%
BTTS rate
Croatia75%
England75%
Over 2.5 goals
Croatia100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 68% · edge +10.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, with Croatia netting in 12 of their last 13 matches and England scoring in each of their last two. Croatia's defensive lapses and England's reliable two-goal scoring pattern suggest a high likelihood of both teams finding the net in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 68% · edge +10.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Croatia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
England to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Croatia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
England Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
The 43.6% for England sits against roughly 28.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Croatia carry the stronger scoring threat, but England must contribute for BTTS to land.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

England

WWWL
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
06 Oct 2026H Czechia3-0
03 Oct 2026A Croatia7-0
29 Sep 2026A Czechia2-0
26 Sep 2026H Spain2-3

Croatia

LLLW
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
06 Oct 2026H Spain1-2
03 Oct 2026H England0-7
29 Sep 2026A Spain1-4
26 Sep 2026A Czechia2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Croatia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
England to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Croatia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
England Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
7
Check odds @ 7
England's recent form shows 9 points from their last matches with an average of 3.5 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, highlighting strong attacking and defensive balance. Croatia's form is less robust, with 3 points and a higher goals conceded average of 3.5, indicating defensive vulnerabilities despite their scoring consistency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%England Over 2.5
100%Croatia Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.33, indicating a tendency for open, attacking encounters. Both teams' recent matches show high over 2.5 goals rates (England 75%, Croatia 100%), suggesting this fixture is likely to feature multiple goals and a lively tempo.

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