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Deportivo Pasto crestDeportivo Pasto
v
Junior crestJunior

Primera A | Thu 12 Nov, 22:00

Deportivo Pasto v Junior Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 01:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportivo Pasto and Junior meet in a Primera A clash where both teams have shown contrasting offensive outputs recently. Deportivo Pasto has struggled to score, averaging 0.8 goals per game, while conceding twice per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Junior, with a slightly better attack averaging 1.2 goals per game and a tighter defense conceding 0.8 goals, tends to play more cautiously away. Recent form data suggests a low-scoring encounter is likely, with Deportivo Pasto's matches often staying under 2.5 goals and Junior's away games showing similar restraint. Tactical caution and defensive focus may shape this fixture into a tight contest with limited goal action.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Deportivo Pasto averages just 0.8 goals per game with a high concession rate of 2 goals per match.
  • Junior scores 1.2 goals per game and concedes 0.8, showing more defensive solidity.
  • Deportivo Pasto's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, but Junior's is only 20%, indicating differing scoring patterns.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates: Deportivo Pasto at 20% and Junior at 40%, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Recent form points: Deportivo Pasto 6, Junior 8, reflecting moderate attacking output and defensive caution.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 58.2% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 25%, indicating strong value. Defensive frailties of Deportivo Pasto are balanced by Junior's conservative away approach and low BTTS rates. Both teams' recent matches show limited goal-scoring, supported by average shots on target around three per team, suggesting few clear chances. The model is high at 88%, reflecting consistent data signals. This pick is a solid football read given the tactical caution and recent scoring trends, with no price warnings affecting the value.

Model Chance40% model chance vs 25% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance40% model chance vs 25% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals DataLow scoring averages for both teams
Positive
Shots on TargetAround 3 per team per game
Positive
BTTS RatesLow BTTS rates for both sides
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given Deportivo Pasto's defensive struggles but limited attacking threat, combined with Junior's cautious away approach. The data shows both teams produce few clear chances and have low BTTS rates, making a low-scoring match the most probable outcome. Tactical caution and recent form support this selection as the most logical betting angle for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring and tactical balance

“This fixture looks set for a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, as both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities but lack consistent attacking firepower. Under 2.5 Goals aligns well with the teams' recent patterns and playing styles.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Deportivo Pasto averages just 0.8 goals per game with a high concession rate of 2 goals per match.

Junior scores 1.2 goals per game and concedes 0.8, showing more defensive solidity.

Both teams have low BTTS rates: Deportivo Pasto at 20% and Junior at 40%, supporting a low-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, suggesting a moderate scoring history.
  • However, recent matches show a decline in goals and BTTS occurrences, indicating a trend towards tighter games.
  • This trend supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals as teams adopt more cautious tactics in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportivo Pasto0.8
Avg goals scored
Junior1.2
Deportivo Pasto2
Avg goals conceded
Junior0.8
Deportivo Pasto20%
BTTS rate
Junior40%
Deportivo Pasto60%
Over 2.5 goals
Junior20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Goal trends indicate a low-scoring encounter, with Deportivo Pasto averaging 0.8 goals and Junior 1.2 goals per game. Both teams have low BTTS rates, 20% and 40% respectively, reinforcing the expectation of limited goal exchanges. The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 2.7, slightly above the threshold but recent form suggests a downward trend in scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionJunior Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +10.9 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
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Deportivo Pasto to WinBetMGM guide price · model 20%
19
Check odds @ 19
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Junior to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The 40% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 25% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Deportivo Pasto and 20% for Junior, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportivo Pasto

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
08 Nov 2026A Santa Fe0-5
03 Nov 2026H Jaguares2-0
31 Oct 2026A Bucaramanga1-2
26 Oct 2026A Deportes Tolima1-0
23 Oct 2026A Atletico Nacional0-3

Junior

WLDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
10 Nov 2026H Cucuta2-0
31 Oct 2026A Llaneros2-3
28 Oct 2026A Chico1-1
24 Oct 2026H Águilas Doradas1-0
19 Oct 2026A Deportivo Cali0-0
Best odds for this sectionJunior Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +10.9 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
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Deportivo Pasto to WinBetMGM guide price · model 20%
19
Check odds @ 19
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Junior to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Recent form data shows Deportivo Pasto with 6 points and Junior with 8 points in their last matches, reflecting moderate momentum. Deportivo Pasto's matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, but Junior's lower 20% rate and both teams' low BTTS percentages suggest a cautious approach likely to limit scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5
20%Junior Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, suggesting a moderate scoring history. However, recent matches show a decline in goals and BTTS occurrences, indicating a trend towards tighter games. This trend supports the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals as teams adopt more cautious tactics in this fixture.

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