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Albania crestAlbania
v
Finland crestFinland

UEFA Nations League | Thu 12 Nov, 19:45

Albania v Finland Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 09:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Albania hosts Finland in a crucial UEFA Nations League C clash with top spot in the group at stake. Albania leads the standings with three wins from four matches, showing strong attacking metrics even when reduced to ten men in their previous meeting. Finland, despite a notable 2-1 win over Albania earlier, has struggled away in 2026 with multiple defeats and scoring difficulties against organized defenses. Albania's home advantage and superior chance creation set the stage for a competitive encounter where tactical discipline and midfield control will be decisive.

BT4Y match pick

Albania to Win

  • Albania won 3 of their 4 Nations League matches, leading the group.
  • Albania created 1.15 expected goals despite playing with ten men in the reverse fixture.
  • Finland has a poor away record in 2026, losing in Germany, Hungary, and Belarus.
  • Both teams have scored in only 30% of their matches, suggesting low BTTS likelihood.
  • Albania averages 18.5 shots and 5.75 shots on target per match, showing attacking intent.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

Albania's strong recent form, including three wins from four matches, and superior chance creation even when a player down, support their chances to win at home. Finland's away struggles and low scoring against organized opponents further tilt the balance. However, the current of 1.75 imply a 57.1% chance, which is higher than the model's 48.2% estimate, indicating a short price. This pick remains a football-led selection based on tactical and form factors, but reduced staking or waiting for better is advised until line-ups or late data improve.

Albania recent form3 wins in 4 matches
Strong positive
Albania xG vs Finland (10 men)1.15 vs 0.56
Strong positive
Finland away form 2026Multiple defeats in Germany, Hungary, Belarus
Negative
Market implied chance48.2% model chance vs 52.4% implied (-4.2 pts)
Negative
Model chance48.2% model chance vs 52.4% implied (-4.2 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Albania's ability to create quality chances even when reduced to ten men in the previous meeting highlights their attacking resilience and tactical discipline. Finland's inconsistent away performances and struggles to break down organized defenses make Albania the more likely winner in this decisive Nations League fixture.

Main risk

Albania carry the stronger scoring threat, but Finland must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Albania's strong attacking metrics and home advantage, combined with Finland's away vulnerabilities, make a home win the most plausible outcome despite the price being slightly short.”

Key Data Signals

Albania to Win evidence

Albania won 3 of their 4 Nations League matches, leading the group.

Albania created 1.15 expected goals despite playing with ten men in the reverse fixture.

Finland has a poor away record in 2026, losing in Germany, Hungary, and Belarus.

Both teams have scored in only 30% of their matches, suggesting low BTTS likelihood.

What To Watch In The Data

Albania to Win notes

  • In the last five matches between these teams and recent Nations League games, over 2.5 goals have occurred in 50-75% of Albania's matches but only 50% of Finland's.
  • The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 3, indicating potential for goals but also a tendency for controlled, tactical play that could limit scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Albania2
Avg goals scored
Finland2.25
Albania0.75
Avg goals conceded
Finland0.5
Albania50%
BTTS rate
Finland25%
Albania75%
Over 2.5 goals
Finland50%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 71% · edge +10.2 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams have seen both sides score in only 30% of their matches this campaign, indicating a low likelihood of BTTS. Finland's low scoring against organized opponents and Albania's defensive discipline support a BTTS No and Under 3.5 goals scenario, pointing to a tight, controlled game with limited goal-scoring from Finland.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubfull betting preview for Albania v Finlandcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlbania to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 52% · edge -4.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Albania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The 48.2% for Albania to Win sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (-4.2 pts). Albania have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for Finland. However, their inconsistent away performances suggest a difficult evening against determined hosts.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Albania

WLWW
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
06 Oct 2026H San Marino2-1
03 Oct 2026A Finland1-2
29 Sep 2026A San Marino3-0
26 Sep 2026H Belarus2-0

Finland

LWDW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
06 Oct 2026A Belarus0-1
03 Oct 2026H Albania2-1
29 Sep 2026H Belarus0-0
26 Sep 2026A San Marino7-0
Market aligned with main pickAlbania to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 52% · edge -4.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Albania Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Albania's recent form is strong, with 9 points from 4 matches and a 75% rate of over 2.5 goals in their games, showing attacking potency. Finland has 7 points with a lower over 2.5 goals rate of 50%, reflecting less consistent scoring. Albania's better goal difference and home advantage underpin their favored status in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Albania Over 2.5
50%Finland Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last five matches between these teams and recent Nations League games, over 2.5 goals have occurred in 50-75% of Albania's matches but only 50% of Finland's. The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 3, indicating potential for goals but also a tendency for controlled, tactical play that could limit scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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