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Italy crestItaly
v
France crestFrance

UEFA Nations League | Thu 12 Nov, 19:45

Italy v France Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 09:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Italy and France face off in a crucial UEFA Nations League clash with France holding a narrow advantage atop Group A1. Italy have struggled at home recently, losing three of their last four Nations League matches, compounded by the absence of key forwards. France arrive in strong away form, having won five consecutive matches on the road, including against higher-ranked opponents. The visitors boast multiple attacking threats such as Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise, while Italy's defensive resilience and ability to score despite limited possession suggest a competitive encounter. This fixture promises tactical intensity with France's attacking depth likely to be decisive.

BT4Y match pick

France to Win

  • France have won five consecutive away matches, including three against higher-ranked teams.
  • Italy have lost three of their last four Nations League home games, showing vulnerability at San Siro.
  • The last six Italy-France meetings averaged 3.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.
  • France's attacking duo Mbappé and Olise provide multiple goal threats.
  • Italy's missing forwards increase reliance on less experienced attackers like Esposito.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates France to win with a 55.5% chance, slightly above the implied 52.4% , indicating a small positive . France's superior away record, recent momentum, and head-to-head control support this pick. Italy's home struggles and key attacking absences reduce their chances despite their defensive core. The model is moderate at 58%, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture but favoring France's attacking depth and consistency. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a well-supported choice.

France recent away form5 consecutive wins
Strong positive
Italy home form3 losses in last 4 Nations League matches
Negative
Head-to-head recordFrance won 4 of last 6 meetings
Positive
France attacking depthMultiple threats including Mbappé and Olise
Strong positive
Italy attacking absencesMissing key forwards Kean, Raspadori, Retegui
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

France's consistent away performances and superior attacking options give them the edge in this Nations League showdown. Italy's recent home difficulties and missing forwards reduce their threat, making France the likely winner. The visitors' momentum and tactical flexibility should secure a narrow victory.

Main risk

Italy carry the stronger scoring threat, but France must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · France to Win

“France's blend of attacking talent and recent away control positions them well to overcome Italy's home resilience in this pivotal Nations League clash.”

Key Data Signals

France to Win evidence

France have won five consecutive away matches, including three against higher-ranked teams.

Italy have lost three of their last four Nations League home games, showing vulnerability at San Siro.

The last six Italy-France meetings averaged 3.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.

France's attacking duo Mbappé and Olise provide multiple goal threats.

What To Watch In The Data

France to Win notes

  • The last five meetings between Italy and France have averaged 3.2 goals per game, indicating a history of open, attacking contests.
  • This trend suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals in this match, driven by France's offensive firepower and Italy's defensive lapses.
  • The tempo and quality of both sides' attacks support expectations of multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Italy2
Avg goals scored
France1.75
Italy1.25
Avg goals conceded
France0.5
Italy75%
BTTS rate
France50%
Italy50%
Over 2.5 goals
France25%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 64% · edge +11.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 29%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have shown the ability to score, with Italy averaging 1.67 goals per game recently and France averaging 1.75. Italy's 75% BTTS rate and France's 50% suggest a reasonable chance both sides will find the net. The attacking quality of France combined with Italy's defensive vulnerabilities supports a lively match with goals from both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubfull betting preview for Italy v Francecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 57% · edge -1.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
France Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 55.5% for France to Win sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (-1.6 pts). France have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Italy. Italy's defensive vulnerabilities and France's attacking threat suggest this exact scoreline, though a second Italian goal would invalidate this bet.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Italy

WDWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
05 Oct 2026H Türkiye3-1
02 Oct 2026A France1-1
28 Sep 2026A Türkiye4-1
25 Sep 2026H Belgium0-2

France

WDWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
05 Oct 2026H Belgium4-1
02 Oct 2026H Italy1-1
28 Sep 2026A Belgium1-0
25 Sep 2026A Türkiye1-0
Market aligned with main pickFrance to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 57% · edge -1.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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France Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
France have accumulated 10 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.5 goals per game, reflecting solid form and defensive stability. Italy have 7 points but concede more frequently at 1.25 goals per game, and their 50% rate of over 2.5 goals matches France's more conservative 25%, indicating France's matches tend to be tighter. France's recent away wins against strong opponents contrast with Italy's home losses, emphasizing France's momentum.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Italy Over 2.5
25%France Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last five meetings between Italy and France have averaged 3.2 goals per game, indicating a history of open, attacking contests. This trend suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals in this match, driven by France's offensive firepower and Italy's defensive lapses. The tempo and quality of both sides' attacks support expectations of multiple goals.

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