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Deportivo Cali crestDeportivo Cali
v
Deportes Tolima crestDeportes Tolima

Primera A | Thu 12 Nov, 21:00

Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 01:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportivo Cali hosts Deportes Tolima in a Primera A clash where the home side holds a strong league position and recent momentum. Deportivo Cali ranks 3rd with 34 points, showcasing solid defensive form by conceding just 0.2 goals per game recently. Deportes Tolima, sitting 9th with 26 points, has a more open style but struggles defensively, conceding 1.6 goals per match. The tactical setup suggests Deportivo Cali's disciplined defense and home advantage could be decisive against a Tolima side reliant on attacking flair but vulnerable at the back.

BT4Y best bet

Deportivo Cali to Win

  • Deportivo Cali ranks 3rd with 34 points, Tolima 9th with 26 points
  • Deportivo Cali concedes only 0.2 goals per game recently, Tolima concedes 1.6
  • Tolima has a high BTTS rate of 80%, Deportivo Cali only 20%
  • Deportivo Cali averages 12.8 shots per game with strong defensive discipline
  • Tolima’s yellow card average is 4 per game, indicating possible discipline issues

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Deportivo Cali to win with a 59.6% chance, reflecting their strong defensive record and higher league standing. Deportivo Cali's recent form shows a tight defense conceding just 0.2 goals per game, contrasting with Tolima's leaky defense allowing 1.6 goals. Despite Tolima's attacking threat, Deportivo Cali's home advantage and defensive solidity create a favorable scenario. The at 2.1 offer positive value given the model's implied chance of 47.6%, making this a confident pick with a 73% rating.

Defensive Solidity0.2 goals conceded per game by Deportivo Cali
Strong positive
League PositionDeportivo Cali 3rd vs Tolima 9th
Positive
Recent FormDeportivo Cali 9 points vs Tolima 6 points
Positive
Value Edge59.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+12 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Deportivo Cali's disciplined defense and home advantage make them the tactical favorite in this fixture. Their recent form and league standing support a win, while Tolima's defensive vulnerabilities and disciplinary issues increase the likelihood of a home victory. This pick balances tactical control with statistical backing for a confident outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and home advantage

“Deportivo Cali's defensive resilience combined with their home form creates a strong foundation for victory against a Tolima side that struggles defensively and with discipline.”

Key Data Signals

Deportivo Cali to Win evidence

Deportivo Cali ranks 3rd with 34 points, Tolima 9th with 26 points

Deportivo Cali concedes only 0.2 goals per game recently, Tolima concedes 1.6

Tolima has a high BTTS rate of 80%, Deportivo Cali only 20%

Deportivo Cali averages 12.8 shots per game with strong defensive discipline

What To Watch In The Data

Deportivo Cali to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Deportivo Cali's low recent over 2.5 goals rate of 20% versus Tolima's 80% suggests a tactical battle where Deportivo Cali aims to keep the game tight, potentially limiting goal volume despite Tolima's attacking tendencies.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportivo Cali1.2
Avg goals scored
Deportes Tolima1.6
Deportivo Cali0.2
Avg goals conceded
Deportes Tolima1.6
Deportivo Cali20%
BTTS rate
Deportes Tolima80%
Deportivo Cali20%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportes Tolima80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Tolima's high BTTS rate of 80% contrasts sharply with Deportivo Cali's 20%, indicating Tolima's games often see goals at both ends. However, Deportivo Cali's recent defensive form suggests they can limit Tolima's scoring chances, making a low BTTS likelihood for the home side plausible despite Tolima's attacking threat.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDeportivo Cali to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Deportivo Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 59.6% for Deportivo Cali to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+12 pts). Deportivo Cali have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Deportes Tolima.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportivo Cali

DWDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
08 Nov 2026A America de Cali0-0
01 Nov 2026H Chico2-0
25 Oct 2026A Fortaleza FC1-1
22 Oct 2026A Llaneros3-0
19 Oct 2026H Junior0-0

Deportes Tolima

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
08 Nov 2026H Millonarios2-1
03 Nov 2026A Deportivo Pereira3-1
26 Oct 2026H Deportivo Pasto0-1
18 Oct 2026A Águilas Doradas1-2
11 Oct 2026A Jaguares2-3
Market aligned with main pickDeportivo Cali to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Deportivo Cali Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Deportivo Cali's recent accumulation of 9 points with a strong defensive record contrasts with Tolima's 6 points and higher goals conceded. This form differential highlights Deportivo Cali's momentum and defensive reliability, supporting their chances to secure a home win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Deportivo Cali Over 2.5
80%Deportes Tolima Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring. Deportivo Cali's low recent over 2.5 goals rate of 20% versus Tolima's 80% suggests a tactical battle where Deportivo Cali aims to keep the game tight, potentially limiting goal volume despite Tolima's attacking tendencies.

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